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Time series foundation models (TSFMs) offer strong zero-shot forecasting via large-scale pre-training, yet fine-tuning remains critical for boosting performance in domains with limited public data. With the growing number of TSFMs,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-30 Qingren Yao , Ming Jin , Chengqi Zhang , Chao-Han Huck Yang , Jun Qi , Shirui Pan

Driven by the transition towards a climate-neutral energy system, accurate energy time series forecasting is critical for planning and operation. Yet, it remains largely a dataset-specific task, requiring comprehensive training data,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-27 Marco Obermeier , Marco Pruckner , Florian Haselbeck , Andreas Zeiselmair

Time-series forecasting models (TSFM) have evolved from classical statistical methods to sophisticated foundation models, yet understanding why and when these models succeed or fail remains challenging. Despite this known limitation, time…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-29 Michael Widener , Kausik Lakkaraju , John Aydin , Biplav Srivastava

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Lag-Llama, TimeGPT, Chronos, MOMENT, UniTS, and TimesFM have shown strong generalization and zero-shot capabilities for time series forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-26 Dhruv D. Modi , Rong Pan

Time series foundation models have demonstrated strong performance in zero-shot learning, making them well-suited for predicting rapidly evolving patterns in real-world applications where relevant training data are scarce. However, most of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-06 Haoyu Ma , Yushu Chen , Wenlai Zhao , Jinzhe Yang , Yingsheng Ji , Xinghua Xu , Xiaozhu Liu , Hao Jing , Shengzhuo Liu , Guangwen Yang

Short-term load prediction (STLP) is critical for modern power distribution system operations, particularly as demand and generation uncertainties grow with the integration of low-carbon technologies, such as electric vehicles and…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-12-18 Nan Lin , Dong Yun , Weijie Xia , Peter Palensky , Pedro P. Vergara

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have introduced zero-shot prediction capabilities that bypass the need for task-specific training. Whether these capabilities translate to mission-critical applications such as electricity demand…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-12 Luigi Simeone

Demographic shifts, influenced by globalization, economic conditions, geopolitical events, and environmental factors, pose significant challenges for policymakers and researchers. Accurate demographic forecasting is essential for informed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-20 Aditya Akella , Jonathan Farah

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-17 Jan Niklas Lettner , Hadeer El Ashhab , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schäfer

Time series forecasting drives operational decisions in areas like finance, transportation, and energy. While supervised learning approaches achieve strong performance, they require domain-specific training, feature engineering, and ongoing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-26 Kavin Soni , Debanshu Das , Vamshi Guduguntla

High-quality wind power forecasting is crucial for the operation of modern power grids. However, prevailing data-driven paradigms either train a site-specific model which cannot generalize to other locations or rely on fine-tuning of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-09 Hang Fan , Yu Shi , Zongliang Fu , Shuo Chen , Wei Wei , Wei Xu , Jian Li

Unlike natural language processing and computer vision, the development of Foundation Models (FMs) for time series forecasting is blocked due to data scarcity. While recent efforts are focused on building such FMs by unlocking the potential…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-10 Qingxiang Liu , Xu Liu , Chenghao Liu , Qingsong Wen , Yuxuan Liang

Multi-task and few-shot time series forecasting tasks are commonly encountered in scenarios such as the launch of new products in different cities. However, traditional time series forecasting methods suffer from insufficient historical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-25 Pengpeng Ouyang , Dong Chen , Tong Yang , Shuo Feng , Zhao Jin , Mingliang Xu

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have shown significant impact through their model capacity, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. However, due to the heterogeneity of inter-variate dependencies and the backbone scalability on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-15 Guo Qin , Zhi Chen , Yong Liu , Zhiyuan Shi , Haixuan Liu , Xiangdong Huang , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Data-driven models for building thermal dynamics are a scalable approach for enabling energy-efficient operation through fault detection & diagnosis or advanced control. To obtain accurate models, measurement data from a target building…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-04-21 Felix Koch , Fabian Raisch , Benjamin Tischler

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-31 Huanyu Zhang , Chang Xu , Yi-Fan Zhang , Zhang Zhang , Liang Wang , Jiang Bian , Tieniu Tan

Existing data-driven approaches in modeling and predicting time series data include ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), Transformer-based models, LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) and TCN (Temporal Convolutional Network). These…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-09 Saroj Gopali , Bipin Chhetri , Deepika Giri , Sima Siami-Namini , Akbar Siami Namin

Accurate network-traffic forecasting enables proactive capacity planning and anomaly detection in Internet Service Provider (ISP) networks. Recent advances in time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong zero-shot and…

网络与互联网体系结构 · 计算机科学 2026-02-18 Fan Liu , Behrooz Farkiani , Patrick Crowley

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as general-purpose forecasting models and show considerable potential for applications in energy systems. However, applications in critical infrastructure like power grids require…

Electricity market prices exhibit extreme volatility, nonlinearity, and non-stationarity, making accurate forecasting a significant challenge. While cutting-edge time series foundation models (TSFMs) effectively capture temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-10 Yunzhong Qiu , Binzhu Li , Hao Wei , Shenglin Weng , Chen Wang , Zhongyi Pei , Mingsheng Long , Jianmin Wang