相关论文: Borrowing on Belief? Consumer Confidence and U.S. …

This paper provides a comprehensive examination of the evolution of credit cards in the United States, tracing their historical development, causes, consequences, and impact on both individuals and the economy. It delves into the…

Through this paper, an attempt has been made to quantify the underlying relationships between the leading macroeconomic indicators. More clearly, an effort has been made in this paper to assess the cointegrating relationships and examine…

There is a tight connection between credit access and voting. We show that uncertainty in access to credit pushes voters toward more conservative candidates in US elections. Using a 1% sample of the US population with valid credit reports,…

Credit scores are critical for allocating consumer debt in the United States, yet little evidence is available on their performance. We benchmark a widely used credit score against a machine learning model of consumer default and find…

What causes house prices to rise and fall? Economists identify household access to credit as a crucial factor. "Loan-to-Value" and "Debt-to-GDP" ratios are the standard measures for credit access. However, these measures fail to explain the…

Consumption is a primary source of economic growth and key indicator of poverty. The establishment of community banks can provide credit resources, unlocking household consumption potential and playing a crucial role in economic…

We find it is common for consumers who are not in financial distress to make credit card payments at or close to the minimum. This pattern is difficult to reconcile with economic factors but can be explained by minimum payment information…

We replicate Meissner (2016), where debt aversion was reported for the first time in an intertemporal consumption and saving problem. While Meissner (2016) uses a German sample, our participants are US undergraduate students. All of the…

This study investigates the impact of increased debt servicing costs on household consumption resulting from monetary policy tightening. It utilizes observational panel microdata on all mortgage holders in Israel and leverages…

For more than a half-century, credit risk management has used credit scoring models in each of its well-defined stages to manage credit risk. Application scoring is used to decide whether to grant a credit or not, while behavioral scoring…

An important issue within the present economic crisis is understanding the dynamics of the public debt of a given country, and how the behavior of average consumers and tax payers in that country affects it. Starting from a model of the…

Modelling Consumer Indebtedness has proven to be a problem of complex nature. In this work we utilise Data Mining techniques and methods to explore the multifaceted aspect of Consumer Indebtedness by examining the contribution of…

This paper provides the first causal evidence that credit supply expansion caused the 1999-2010 U.S. business cycle mainly through the channel of household leverage (debt-to-income ratio). Specifically, induced by net export growth, credit…

We develop a model to predict consumer default based on deep learning. We show that the model consistently outperforms standard credit scoring models, even though it uses the same data. Our model is interpretable and is able to provide a…

We investigate a multi-household DSGE model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich, and leads to a…

Using a large quarterly macroeconomic dataset for the period 1960-2017, we document the ability of specific financial ratios from the housing market and firms' aggregate balance sheets to predict GDP over medium-term horizons in the United…

Consumer spending accounts for a large fraction of the US economic activity. Increasingly, consumer activity is moving to the web, where digital traces of shopping and purchases provide valuable data about consumer behavior. We analyze…

Monthly disaggregated US data from 1978 to 2016 reveals that exposure to news on inflation and monetary policy helps to explain inflation expectations. This remains true when controlling for household personal characteristics, perceptions…

This paper proposes a brand-new measure of energy efficiency at household level and explores how it is affected by access to credit. We calculate the energy and carbon intensity of the related sectors, which experience a substantial decline…

I develop and estimate a dynamic equilibrium model of risky entrepreneurs' borrowing and savings decisions incorporating both formal and local-informal credit markets. Households have access to an exogenous formal credit market and to an…