相关论文: A likelihood-based Bayesian inference framework fo…

We formulate a discrete-time Bayesian stochastic volatility model for high-frequency stock-market data that directly accounts for microstructure noise, and outline a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for parameter estimation. The methods…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

We consider stochastic systems of interacting particles or agents, with dynamics determined by an interaction kernel which only depends on pairwise distances. We study the problem of inferring this interaction kernel from observations of…

Agent-based models (ABMs) highlight the importance of simulation validation, such as qualitative face validation and quantitative empirical validation. In particular, we focused on quantitative validation by adjusting simulation input…

To control how a robot moves, motion planning algorithms must compute paths in high-dimensional state spaces while accounting for physical constraints related to motors and joints, generating smooth and stable motions, avoiding obstacles,…

We consider the problem of estimating complex statistical latent variable models using variational Bayes methods. These methods are used when exact posterior inference is either infeasible or computationally expensive, and they approximate…

This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights…

This study presents a novel approach to quantifying uncertainties in Bayesian model updating, which is effective in sparse or single observations. Conventional uncertainty quantification metrics such as the Euclidean and Bhattacharyya…

A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…

This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…

Accurate prediction of future agent trajectories is a critical challenge for ensuring safe and efficient autonomous navigation, particularly in complex urban environments characterized by multiple plausible future scenarios. In this paper,…

This paper provides a unifying theoretical framework for stochastic optimization algorithms by means of a latent stochastic variational problem. Using techniques from stochastic control, the solution to the variational problem is shown to…

Day-to-day traffic dynamics are widely used to model flow evolution due to travelers' learning and adjustment behavior, yet empirical analysis of these models often relies on descriptive calibration with limited inferential content. This…

The increased availability of observation data from engineering systems in operation poses the question of how to incorporate this data into finite element models. To this end, we propose a novel statistical construction of the finite…

Stochastic systems in biology often exhibit substantial variability within and between cells. This variability, as well as having dramatic functional consequences, provides information about the underlying details of the system's behaviour.…

In this paper we extend the work of Smith and Papamichail (1999) and present fast approximate Bayesian algorithms for learning in complex scenarios where at any time frame, the relationships between explanatory state space variables can be…

In this work, we propose differentially private methods for hypothesis testing, model averaging, and model selection for normal linear models. We consider Bayesian methods based on mixtures of $g$-priors and non-Bayesian methods based on…

Recent advances in computing power and the potential to make more realistic assumptions due to increased flexibility have led to the increased prevalence of simulation models in economics. While models of this class, and particularly…

In our previous work we have shown how Bayesian networks can be used for adaptive testing of student skills. Later, we have taken the advantage of monotonicity restrictions in order to learn models fitting data better. This article provides…

We introduce a new sequential methodology to calibrate the fixed parameters and track the stochastic dynamical variables of a state-space system. The proposed method is based on the nested hybrid filtering (NHF) framework of [1], that…