相关论文: Conformal Predictive Distributions for Order Fulfi…

Conformal prediction equips machine learning models with a reasonable notion of uncertainty quantification without making strong distributional assumptions. It wraps around any prediction model and converts point predictions into set…

This transformation of food delivery businesses to online platforms has gained high attention in recent years. This due to the availability of customizing ordering experiences, easy payment methods, fast delivery, and others. The…

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a powerful statistical machine learning tool to construct uncertainty sets with coverage guarantees, which has fueled its extensive adoption in generating prediction regions for decision-making tasks, e.g.,…

Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…

Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying…

Interest has been growing in decision-focused machine learning methods which train models to account for how their predictions are used in downstream optimization problems. Doing so can often improve performance on subsequent decision…

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

In this paper we build a case for providing job completion time predictions to cloud users, similar to the delivery date of a package or arrival time of a booked ride. Our analysis reveals that providing predictability can come at the…

Time series forecasting in the air cargo industry presents unique challenges due to volatile market dynamics and the significant impact of accurate forecasts on generated revenue. This paper explores a comprehensive approach to demand…

We address an optimal control problem for linear stochastic systems with unknown noise distributions and joint chance constraints using conformal prediction. Our approach involves designing a feedback controller to maintain an error system…

In online selective conformal inference, data arrives sequentially, and prediction intervals are constructed only when an online selection rule is met. Since online selections may break the exchangeability between the selected test datum…

While the traditional viewpoint in machine learning and statistics assumes training and testing samples come from the same population, practice belies this fiction. One strategy -- coming from robust statistics and optimization -- is thus…

Inventory management, vehicle routing, and delivery scheduling decisions are simultaneously considered in the context of the inventory routing problem. This paper focuses on the continuous-time version of this problem where, unlike its more…

Accurate electrical load forecasting is crucial for optimizing power system operations, planning, and management. As power systems become increasingly complex, traditional forecasting methods may fail to capture the intricate patterns and…

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

This paper presents a meta-learning based, automatic distribution system load forecasting model selection framework. The framework includes the following processes: feature extraction, candidate model labeling, offline training, and online…

We introduce Conformal Interquantile Regression (CIR), a conformal regression method that efficiently constructs near-minimal prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. CIR leverages black-box machine learning models to estimate outcome…