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In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-22 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

We consider linear regression model estimation where the covariate of interest is randomly censored. Under a non-informative censoring mechanism, one may obtain valid estimates by deleting censored observations. However, this comes at a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-10-24 Folefac Atem , Roland A. Matsouaka

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-06-07 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-10-21 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai

Model-free time-to-event regression under confounding presents challenges due to biases introduced by causal and censoring sampling mechanisms. This phenomenology poses problems for classical non-parametric estimators like Beran's or the…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-02-28 Carlos García-Meixide , Marcos Matabuena

Counterfactual reasoning has emerged as a crucial technique for generalizing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). By generating and analyzing counterfactual scenarios, researchers can assess the adaptability and…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-02-17 Shuai Yang , Qi Yang , Luoxi Tang , Yuqiao Meng , Nancy Guo , Jeremy Blackburn , Zhaohan Xi

Counterfactual prediction is about predicting outcome of the unobserved situation from the data. For example, given patient is on drug A, what would be the outcome if she switch to drug B. Most of existing works focus on modeling…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-10-29 Yanbo Xu , Cao Xiao , Jimeng Sun

In clinical practice, physicians make a series of treatment decisions over the course of a patient's disease based on his/her baseline and evolving characteristics. A dynamic treatment regime is a set of sequential decision rules that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-02-04 Phillip J. Schulte , Anastasios A. Tsiatis , Eric B. Laber , Marie Davidian

Deep Q-Learning (DQL), a family of temporal difference algorithms for control, employs three techniques collectively known as the `deadly triad' in reinforcement learning: bootstrapping, off-policy learning, and function approximation.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-03-22 Joshua Achiam , Ethan Knight , Pieter Abbeel

Patient care may be improved by recommending treatments based on patient characteristics when there is treatment effect heterogeneity. Recently, there has been a great deal of attention focused on the estimation of optimal treatment rules…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-29 Michael Jetsupphasuk , Michael G. Hudgens , Jessie K. Edwards , Stephen R. Cole

With the widespread accumulation of observational data, researchers obtain a new direction to learn counterfactual effects in many domains (e.g., health care and computational advertising) without Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs).…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-01 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Prediction of survival for cancer patients is an open area of research. However, many of these studies focus on datasets with a large number of patients. We present a novel method that is specifically designed to address the challenge of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2015-09-30 Hamid Reza Hassanzadeh , John H. Phan , May D. Wang

Factorial analyses offer a powerful nonparametric means to detect main or interaction effects among multiple treatments. For survival outcomes, e.g. from clinical trials, such techniques can be adopted for comparing reasonable…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-06 Takeshi Emura , Marc Ditzhaus , Dennis Dobler , Kenta Murotani

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity widely informs treatment decision making. At the moment, much emphasis is placed on the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect via flexible machine learning algorithms. While these…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-07 Lihua Lei , Emmanuel J. Candès

The modeling of time-to-event data, also known as survival analysis, requires specialized methods that can deal with censoring and truncation, time-varying features and effects, and that extend to settings with multiple competing events.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-04-20 Andreas Bender , David Rügamer , Fabian Scheipl , Bernd Bischl

Survival analysis is a type of semi-supervised ranking task where the target output (the survival time) is often right-censored. Utilizing this information is a challenge because it is not obvious how to correctly incorporate these censored…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-06-12 Margaux Luck , Tristan Sylvain , Joseph Paul Cohen , Heloise Cardinal , Andrea Lodi , Yoshua Bengio

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) from right-censored survival data is critical in high-stakes applications such as precision medicine and individualized policy-making. Yet, the survival analysis setting poses unique…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-06 Shahriar Noroozizadeh , Xiaobin Shen , Jeremy C. Weiss , George H. Chen

Estimating causal effects on time-to-event outcomes from observational data is particularly challenging due to censoring, limited sample sizes, and non-random treatment assignment. The need for answering such "when-if" questions--how the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-19 Jessy Xinyi Han , Devavrat Shah

Offline reinforcement learning is important in domains such as medicine, economics, and e-commerce where online experimentation is costly, dangerous or unethical, and where the true model is unknown. However, most methods assume all…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-30 David Bruns-Smith , Angela Zhou

The capacity to address counterfactual "what if" inquiries is crucial for understanding and making use of causal influences. Traditional counterfactual inference, under Pearls' counterfactual framework, typically depends on having access to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-29 Shaoan Xie , Biwei Huang , Bin Gu , Tongliang Liu , Kun Zhang