相关论文: Hierarchical Forecast Reconciliation on Networks: …

A novel framework for hierarchical forecast updating is presented, addressing a critical gap in the forecasting literature. By assuming a temporal hierarchy structure, the innovative approach extends hierarchical forecast reconciliation to…

This paper focuses on forecasting hierarchical time-series data, where each higher-level observation equals the sum of its corresponding lower-level time series. In such contexts, the forecast values should be coherent, meaning that the…

Time series often appear in an additive hierarchical structure. In such cases, time series on higher levels are the sums of their subordinate time series. This hierarchical structure places a natural constraint on forecasts. However,…

In this paper, we propose a machine learning approach for forecasting hierarchical time series. When dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from generating accurate forecasts, one needs to select a suitable method for producing…

Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is…

In numerous applications, it is required to produce forecasts for multiple time-series at different hierarchy levels. An obvious example is given by the supply chain in which demand forecasting may be needed at a store, city, or country…

Ads demand forecasting for Walmart's ad products plays a critical role in enabling effective resource planning, allocation, and management of ads performance. In this paper, we introduce a comprehensive demand forecasting system that…

The practical importance of coherent forecasts in hierarchical forecasting has inspired many studies on forecast reconciliation. Under this approach, so-called base forecasts are produced for every series in the hierarchy and are…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS)…

Model selection has been proven an effective strategy for improving accuracy in time series forecasting applications. However, when dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from selecting the most appropriate forecasting model,…

Platform businesses operate on a digital core and their decision making requires high-dimensional accurate forecast streams at different levels of cross-sectional (e.g., geographical regions) and temporal aggregation (e.g., minutes to…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts…

Methods for forecasting time series adhering to linear constraints have seen notable development in recent years, especially with the advent of forecast reconciliation. This paper extends forecast reconciliation to the open question of…

Hierarchical forecasting methods have been widely used to support aligned decision-making by providing coherent forecasts at different aggregation levels. Traditional hierarchical forecasting approaches, such as the bottom-up and top-down…

In hierarchical forecasting, the process of forecast reconciliation transforms a set of "base" or "raw" forecasts, which do not satisfy the hierarchical aggregation constraints in the real data, into a set of "coherent" forecasts, which do…

Hierarchical time series forecasting presents unique challenges, particularly when dealing with noisy data that may not perfectly adhere to aggregation constraints. This paper introduces a novel approach to soft coherency in hierarchical…

Some time series can be hierarchically organized into levels based on certain characteristics, such as geography or other attributes of interest. These series are referred to as hierarchical time series. Typically, forecasts are generated…

Optimal decision-making compels us to anticipate the future at different horizons. However, in many domains connecting together predictions from multiple time horizons and abstractions levels across their organization becomes all the more…

Forecast reconciliation has attracted significant research interest in recent years, with most studies taking the hierarchy of time series as given. We extend existing work that uses time series clustering to construct hierarchies, with the…

Aggregation constraints, arising from geographical or sectoral division, frequently emerge in a large set of time series. Coherent forecasts of these constrained series are anticipated to conform to their hierarchical structure organized by…