相关论文: Generative modelling of multivariate geometric ext…

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

In this work, we propose a simulation-based estimation approach using generative neural networks to determine dependencies of precipitation maxima and their underlying uncertainty in time and space. Within the common framework of max-stable…

Physics-based climate projections using general circulation models are essential for assessing future risks, but their coarse resolution limits regional decision-making. Statistical downscaling can efficiently add detail, yet many methods…

We propose Multiscale Flow, a generative Normalizing Flow that creates samples and models the field-level likelihood of two-dimensional cosmological data such as weak lensing. Multiscale Flow uses hierarchical decomposition of cosmological…

Flow-based generative models are composed of invertible transformations between two random variables of the same dimension. Therefore, flow-based models cannot be adequately trained if the dimension of the data distribution does not match…

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. It nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalised Hyperbolic…

In extreme values theory, for a sufficiently large block size, the maxima distribution is approximated by the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The GEV distribution is a family of continuous probability distributions, which has…

Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…

Describing the complex dependence structure of extreme phenomena is particularly challenging. To tackle this issue we develop a novel statistical algorithm that describes extremal dependence taking advantage of the inherent hierarchical…

For extreme value estimation we propose to use a model with a Dirichlet process mixture of gamma densities in the center and generalized Pareto densities for the tails. Due to the randomness in the center and a heavy tailed density in the…

This paper presents an innovative approach to extreme precipitation nowcasting by employing Transformer-based generative models, namely NowcastingGPT with Extreme Value Loss (EVL) regularization. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset from the…

Normalizing Flows are a promising new class of algorithms for unsupervised learning based on maximum likelihood optimization with change of variables. They offer to learn a factorized component representation for complex nonlinear data and,…

Deep generative networks such as GANs and normalizing flows flourish in the context of high-dimensional tasks such as image generation. However, so far exact modeling or extrapolation of distributional properties such as the tail…

Modeling heterogeneity on heavy-tailed distributions under a regression framework is challenging, and classical statistical methodologies usually place conditions on the distribution models to facilitate the learning procedure. However,…

The generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a three parameter family that describes the asymptotic behaviour of properly renormalised maxima of a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. If the shape…

We provide a novel approach to construct generative models for graphs. Instead of using the traditional probabilistic models or deep generative models, we propose to instead find an algorithm that generates the data. We achieve this using…

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical…

A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the…

The goal of compressed sensing is to estimate a high dimensional vector from an underdetermined system of noisy linear equations. In analogy to classical compressed sensing, here we assume a generative model as a prior, that is, we assume…

We develop a multivariate posterior sampling procedure through deep generative quantile learning. Simulation proceeds implicitly through a push-forward mapping that can transform i.i.d. random vector samples from the posterior. We utilize…