相关论文: Replacing ARDL? Introducing the NSB-ARDL Model for…

Deep learning (DL) in general and Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in particular have seen high success levels in sequence based applications. This paper pertains to RNNs for time series modelling and forecasting. We propose a novel RNN…

Aggregated Relational Data (ARD) contain summary information about individual social networks and are widely used to estimate social network characteristics and the size of populations of interest. Although a variety of ARD estimators…

Debiased machine learning estimators for smooth functionals in nonparametric models can exhibit substantial variability and instability, often leading practitioners to instead rely on parametric or semiparametric working models. Such…

We extend the approximate residual balancing (ARB) framework to nonlinear models, answering an open problem posed by Athey et al. (2018). Our approach addresses the challenge of estimating average treatment effects in high-dimensional…

Environmental exposures, such as air pollution and extreme temperatures, have complex effects on human health. These effects are often characterized by non-linear exposure-lag-response relationships and delayed impacts over time. Accurately…

In power grids, short-term load forecasting (STLF) is crucial as it contributes to the optimization of their reliability, emissions, and costs, while it enables the participation of energy companies in the energy market. STLF is a…

Accurate demand forecasts can help on-line retail organizations better plan their supply-chain processes. The challenge, however, is the large number of associative factors that result in large, non-stationary shifts in demand, which…

Anomaly detection of multivariate time series is meaningful for system behavior monitoring. This paper proposes an anomaly detection method based on unsupervised Short- and Long-term Mask Representation learning (SLMR). The main idea is to…

We present a novel adaptive random subspace learning algorithm (RSSL) for prediction purpose. This new framework is flexible where it can be adapted with any learning technique. In this paper, we tested the algorithm for regression and…

Autoregressive (AR) models remain widely used in time series analysis due to their interpretability, but convencional parameter estimation methods can be computationally expensive and prone to convergence issues. This paper proposes a…

Recently, differentiable causal discovery has emerged as a promising approach to improve the accuracy and efficiency of existing methods. However, when applied to high-dimensional data or data with latent confounders, these methods, often…

The proposed method in this paper is designed to address the problem of time series forecasting. Although some exquisitely designed models achieve excellent prediction performances, how to extract more useful information and make accurate…

Complex nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in many fields. Moreover, we rarely have access to all of the relevant state variables governing the dynamics. Delay embedding allows us, in principle, to account for unobserved state variables.…

Tuning of model-based boosting algorithms relies mainly on the number of iterations, while the step-length is fixed at a predefined value. For complex models with several predictors such as Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale…

Machine/deep learning models have been widely adopted for predicting the configuration performance of software systems. However, a crucial yet unaddressed challenge is how to cater for the sparsity inherited from the configuration…

Forecasting irregular time series presents significant challenges due to two key issues: the vulnerability of models to mean regression, driven by the noisy and complex nature of the data, and the limitations of traditional error-based…

Insurance companies often operate across multiple interrelated lines of business (LOBs), and accounting for dependencies between them is essential for accurate reserve estimation and risk capital determination. In our previous work on the…

This research attempts to model the stochastic process of trades in a limit order book market as a marked point process. We propose a semi-parametric model for the conditional distribution given the past, attempting to capture the effect of…

We develop a framework for learning sparse nonparametric directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data. Our approach is based on a recent algebraic characterization of DAGs that led to a fully continuous program for score-based learning of DAG…

Long-term time-series forecasting is essential for planning and decision-making in economics, energy, and transportation, where long foresight is required. To obtain such long foresight, models must be both efficient and effective in…