相关论文: Replacing ARDL? Introducing the NSB-ARDL Model for…

Multivariate time-series data in numerous real-world applications (e.g., healthcare and industry) are informative but challenging due to the lack of labels and high dimensionality. Recent studies in self-supervised learning have shown their…

Non-Exemplar Continual Graph Learning (NECGL) seeks to eliminate the privacy risks intrinsic to rehearsal-based paradigms by retaining solely class-level prototype representations rather than raw graph examples for mitigating catastrophic…

Online statistical inference facilitates real-time analysis of sequentially collected data, making it different from traditional methods that rely on static datasets. This paper introduces a novel approach to online inference in…

When examining the relationship between an exposure and an outcome, there is often a time lag between exposure and the observed effect on the outcome. A common statistical approach for estimating the relationship between the outcome and…

In modern business modeling and analytics, data monitoring plays a critical role. Nowadays, sophisticated models often rely on hundreds or even thousands of input variables. Over time, structural changes such as abrupt level shifts or trend…

This paper challenges the dominance of stochastic trend models by introducing the Seasonal-Trend-Stationary ARMA (STSA) framework, which represents univariate nonstationary time series as stationary fluctuations around deterministic trend…

Although contrastive and other representation-learning methods have long been explored in vision and NLP, their adoption in modern time series forecasters remains limited. We believe they hold strong promise for this domain. To unlock this…

Empirical modelling often aims for the simplest model consistent with the data. A new technique is presented which quantifies the consistency of the model dynamics as a function of location in state space. As is well-known, traditional…

In the era of increasingly complex AI models for time series forecasting, progress is often measured by marginal improvements on benchmark leaderboards. However, this approach suffers from a fundamental flaw: standard evaluation metrics…

The paper proposes a new bootstrap approach to the Pesaran, Shin and Smith's bound tests in a conditional equilibrium correction model with the aim to overcome some typical drawbacks of the latter, such as inconclusive inference and…

Accurate forecasting of multivariate time series is an extensively studied subject in finance, transportation, and computer science. Fully mining the correlation and causation between the variables in a multivariate time series exhibits…

This paper investigates a partially linear spatial autoregressive panel data model that incorporates fixed effects, constant and time-varying regression coefficients, and a time-varying spatial lag coefficient. A two-stage least squares…

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) methods assume that labeled data, unlabeled data and test data are from the same distribution. Open-set semi-supervised learning (Open-set SSL) considers a more practical scenario, where unlabeled data and…

This article proposes a novel framework that integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to forecast macro-financial variables and examine asymmetries in the transmission…

Current deep regression models usually learn in a point-wise way that treats each sample as an independent input, neglecting the relative ordering among different data. Consequently, the regression model could neglect the data's…

The non-linear autoregressive (NLAR) model plays an important role in modeling and predicting time series. One-step ahead prediction is straightforward using the NLAR model, but the multi-step ahead prediction is cumbersome. For instance,…

Predictive simulations are essential for applications ranging from weather forecasting to material design. The veracity of these simulations hinges on their capacity to capture the effective system dynamics. Massively parallel simulations…

Precipitation nowcasting is a critical spatio-temporal prediction task for society to prevent severe damage owing to extreme weather events. Despite the advances in this field, the complex and stochastic nature of this task still poses…

Spatio-temporal forecasting in various domains, like traffic prediction and weather forecasting, is a challenging endeavor, primarily due to the difficulties in modeling propagation dynamics and capturing high-dimensional interactions among…

Short Term Load Forecast (STLF) is necessary for effective scheduling, operation optimization trading, and decision-making for electricity consumers. Modern and efficient machine learning methods are recalled nowadays to manage complicated…