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We present an extension of local sensitivity analysis, also referred to as the perturbation approach for uncertainty quantification, to Bayesian inverse problems. More precisely, we show how moments of random variables with respect to the…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-04-06 Jürgen Dölz , David Ebert

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-12-08 Samuel Bronstein , Stefan Engblom , Robin Marin

In the realm of supervised learning, Bayesian learning has shown robust predictive capabilities under input and parameter perturbations. Inspired by these findings, we demonstrate the robustness properties of Bayesian learning in the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-17 Nardos Ayele Ashenafi , Wankun Sirichotiyakul , Aykut C. Satici

We propose a novel Bayesian model selection technique on linear mixed-effects models to compare multiple treatments with a control. A fully Bayesian approach is implemented to estimate the marginal inclusion probabilities that provide a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-09-28 Lei Gong , James M. Flegal , Stephen R. Spindler , Patricia L. Mote

This study proposes the novel Bayesian and inverse Bayesian (BIB) inference framework that incorporates symmetry bias into the Bayesian updating process to perform both conventional and inverse Bayesian updates concurrently. Conventional…

Both Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood score…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-02-25 Erlis Ruli , Nicola Sartori , Laura Ventura

Bayesian analysis is increasingly popular for use in social science and other application areas where the data are observations from an informative sample. An informative sampling design leads to inclusion probabilities that are correlated…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-06-07 Terrance D. Savitsky , Daniell Toth

State-of-the-art neural network-based methods for learning summary statistics have delivered promising results for simulation-based likelihood-free parameter inference. Existing approaches require density estimation as a post-processing…

This paper introduces a feasible and practical Bayesian method for unit root testing in financial time series. We propose a convenient approximation of the Bayes factor in terms of the Bayesian Information Criterion as a straightforward and…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-02-23 Magris Martin , Iosifidis Alexandros

It is not always clear how to adjust for control data in causal inference, balancing the goals of reducing bias and variance. We show how, in a setting with repeated experiments, Bayesian hierarchical modeling yields an adaptive procedure…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-23 Andrew Gelman , Matthijs Vákár

This paper develops a class of Bayesian non- and semiparametric methods for estimating regression curves and surfaces. The main idea is to model the regression as locally linear, and then place suitable local priors on the local parameters.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-26 Nils Lid Hjort

We consider the problem of statistical inference on parameters of a target population when auxiliary observations are available from related populations. We propose a flexible empirical Bayes approach that can be applied on top of any…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-12-15 Michael Law , Peter Bühlmann , Ya'acov Ritov

We develop an empirical Bayes procedure for estimating the cell means in an unbalanced, two-way additive model with fixed effects. We employ a hierarchical model, which reflects exchangeability of the effects within treatment and within…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-05-30 Lawrence D. Brown , Gourab Mukherjee , Asaf Weinstein

In this paper, we explore adaptive inference based on variational Bayes. Although several studies have been conducted to analyze the contraction properties of variational posteriors, there is still a lack of a general and computationally…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-03-12 Ilsang Ohn , Lizhen Lin

The paper introduces a Bayesian estimation method for quantile regression in univariate ordinal models. Two algorithms are presented that utilize the latent variable inferential framework of Albert and Chib (1993) and the normal-exponential…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-30 Mohammad Arshad Rahman

We use a controlled laboratory experiment to study the causal impact of income decreases within a time period on redistribution decisions at the end of that period, in an environment where we keep fixed the sum of incomes over the period.…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2021-07-08 Nickolas Gagnon , Riccardo D. Saulle , Henrik W. Zaunbrecher

The integration of longitudinal measurements and survival time in statistical modeling offers a powerful framework for capturing the interplay between these two essential outcomes, particularly when they exhibit associations. However, in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-11 Taban Baghfalaki , Mojtaba Ganjali , Rui Martins

This study is concerned with estimating the inequality measures associated with the underlying hypothetical income distribution from the times series grouped data on the Lorenz curve. We adopt the Dirichlet pseudo likelihood approach where…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-08-20 Genya Kobayashi , Yuta Yamauchi , Kazuhiko Kakamu , Yuki Kawakubo , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We study the bias of classical quantile regression and instrumental variable quantile regression estimators. While being asymptotically first-order unbiased, these estimators can have non-negligible second-order biases. We derive a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-17 Grigory Franguridi , Bulat Gafarov , Kaspar Wuthrich

We develop a distribution regression model under endogenous sample selection. This model is a semi-parametric generalization of the Heckman selection model. It accommodates much richer effects of the covariates on outcome distribution and…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-12-19 Victor Chernozhukov , Iván Fernández-Val , Siyi Luo