相关论文: FOReCAst: The Future Outcome Reasoning and Confide…

Large Language Model (LLM) evaluation is currently one of the most important areas of research, with existing benchmarks proving to be insufficient and not completely representative of LLMs' various capabilities. We present a curated…

Commonsense reasoning is intuitive for humans but has been a long-term challenge for artificial intelligence (AI). Recent advancements in pretrained language models have shown promising results on several commonsense benchmark datasets.…

In recent years, with the rapid development of the depth and breadth of large language models' capabilities, various corresponding evaluation benchmarks have been emerging in increasing numbers. As a quantitative assessment tool for model…

Large language models are moving from static text generators toward real-world decision-support systems, where forecasting is a composite capability that links information gathering, evidence integration, situational judgment, and…

Performative predictions are forecasts which influence the outcomes they aim to predict, undermining the existence of correct forecasts and standard methods of elicitation and estimation. We show that conditioning forecasts on covariates…

Contextual predictability shapes how we choose and encode words in production. The effects of a word's predictability given preceding or past context are generally well-understood in both production and comprehension, but studies of…

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Mean Opinion Score (MOS) prediction has made significant progress in specific domains. However, the unstable performance of MOS prediction models across diverse samples presents ongoing challenges in the practical application of these…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in applications requiring factual accuracy, yet their outputs often contain hallucinated responses. While fact-checking can mitigate these errors, existing methods typically retrieve…

Radar-based precipitation nowcasting, the task of forecasting short-term precipitation fields from previous radar images, is a critical problem for flood risk management and decision-making. While deep learning has substantially advanced…

When providing probabilistic forecasts for uncertain future events, it is common to strive for calibrated forecasts, that is, the predictive distribution should be compatible with the observed outcomes. Several notions of calibration are…

The large-scale deployment of autonomous vehicles is yet to come, and one of the major remaining challenges lies in urban dense traffic scenarios. In such cases, it remains challenging to predict the future evolution of the scene and future…

With the rapid integration of advanced reasoning capabilities into spoken dialogue models, the field urgently demands benchmarks that transcend simple interactions to address real-world complexity. However, current evaluations predominantly…

Existing benchmarks for frontier models often test specialized, "PhD-level" knowledge that is difficult for non-experts to grasp. In contrast, we present a benchmark with 613 problems based on the NPR Sunday Puzzle Challenge that requires…

Visual reasoning is central to human cognition, enabling individuals to interpret and abstractly understand their environment. Although recent Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across language…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

The meteoric rise of AI, with its rapidly expanding market capitalization, presents both transformative opportunities and critical challenges. Chief among these is the urgent need for a new, unified paradigm for trustworthy evaluation, as…

Forecasting the behavior of other agents is an integral part of the modern robotic autonomy stack, especially in safety-critical scenarios with human-robot interaction, such as autonomous driving. In turn, there has been a significant…

Frontier model progress is often measured by academic benchmarks, which offer a limited view of performance in real-world professional contexts. Existing evaluations often fail to assess open-ended, economically consequential tasks in…