相关论文: FOReCAst: The Future Outcome Reasoning and Confide…

As AI models tackle increasingly complex problems, ensuring reliable human oversight becomes more challenging due to the difficulty of verifying solutions. Approaches to scaling AI supervision include debate, in which two agents engage in…

Most AI benchmarks saturate within years or even months after they are introduced, making it hard to study long-run trends in AI capabilities. To address this challenge, we build a statistical framework that stitches benchmarks together,…

We introduce ReXTime, a benchmark designed to rigorously test AI models' ability to perform temporal reasoning within video events. Specifically, ReXTime focuses on reasoning across time, i.e. human-like understanding when the question and…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Reliable causal inference is essential for making decisions in high-stakes areas like medicine, economics, and public policy. However, it remains unclear whether large language models (LLMs) can handle rigorous and trustworthy statistical…

The rapid development of Large Language Models (LLMs) has transformed fake news detection and fact-checking tasks from simple classification to complex reasoning. However, evaluation frameworks have not kept pace. Current benchmarks are…

Computer vision models have known performance disparities across attributes such as gender and skin tone. This means during tasks such as classification and detection, model performance differs for certain classes based on the demographics…

We conduct a systematic audit of three widely used reasoning benchmarks, SocialIQa, FauxPas-EAI, and ToMi, and uncover pervasive flaws in both benchmark items and evaluation methodology. Using five LLMs (GPT-{3, 3.5, 4, o1}, and LLaMA 3.1)…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly excelling and outpacing human performance on many tasks. However, to improve LLM reasoning, researchers either rely on ad-hoc generated datasets or formal mathematical proof systems such as the…

Today, AI is being increasingly used to help human experts make decisions in high-stakes scenarios. In these scenarios, full automation is often undesirable, not only due to the significance of the outcome, but also because human experts…

Model uncertainty is pervasive in real world analysis situations and is an often-neglected issue in applied statistics. However, standard approaches to the research process do not address the inherent uncertainty in model building and,…

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Event forecasting is inherently influenced by multifaceted considerations, including international relations, regional historical dynamics, and cultural contexts. However, existing LLM-based approaches employ single-model architectures that…

This paper introduces Fast Calibrated Explanations, a method designed for generating rapid, uncertainty-aware explanations for machine learning models. By incorporating perturbation techniques from ConformaSight - a global explanation…

Predictive analysis is a cornerstone of modern decision-making, with applications in various domains. Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in enabling nuanced, knowledge-intensive conversations, thus aiding in complex…

On the way towards general Visual Question Answering (VQA) systems that are able to answer arbitrary questions, the need arises for evaluation beyond single-metric leaderboards for specific datasets. To this end, we propose a browser-based…

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where reasoning, such as multi-step problem solving and chain-of-thought, is essential. Yet, current evaluation practices overwhelmingly report single-run accuracy while…

Uncertainty quantification is a set of techniques that measure confidence in language models. They can be used, for example, to detect hallucinations or alert users to review uncertain predictions. To be useful, these confidence scores must…

Deception detection has attracted increasing attention due to its importance in real-world scenarios. Its main goal is to detect deceptive behaviors from multimodal clues such as gestures, facial expressions, prosody, etc. However, these…