相关论文: Validating uncertainty propagation approaches for …

We explore probability modelling of discretization uncertainty for system states defined implicitly by ordinary or partial differential equations. Accounting for this uncertainty can avoid posterior under-coverage when likelihoods are…

When we use simulation to assess the performance of stochastic systems, the input models used to drive simulation experiments are often estimated from finite real-world data. There exist both input model and simulation estimation…

This article extends the scope of empirical likelihood methodology in three directions: to allow for plug-in estimates of nuisance parameters in estimating equations, slower than $\sqrt{n}$-rates of convergence, and settings in which there…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed…

Existing model validation studies in geoscience often disregard or partly account for uncertainties in observations, model choices, and input parameters. In this work, we develop a statistical framework that incorporates a probabilistic…

Although distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) are commonly used to quantify delayed and non-linear exposure-response relationships, most existing applications assume that these relationships are constant across space. However, in many…

We present early results from a study addressing the question of how one treats the propagation of incertitude, that is, epistemic uncertainty, in input parameters in astrophysical simulations. As an example, we look at the propagation of…

We propose a novel approach for estimating conditional or parametric expectations in the setting where obtaining samples or evaluating integrands is costly. Through the framework of probabilistic numerical methods (such as Bayesian…

The evolution of local defects such as dislocations and cracks often determines the performance of engineering materials. For a proper description and understanding of these phenomena, one needs to descend to a very small scale, at which…

The hybrid neural differentiable models mark a significant advancement in the field of scientific machine learning. These models, integrating numerical representations of known physics into deep neural networks, offer enhanced predictive…

Motivated by parametric models for which the likelihood is analytically unavailable, numerically unstable, or prohibitively expensive to compute or optimize, we develop a prior- and likelihood-free framework for fully probabilistic…

Standard gradient descent methods yield point estimates with no measure of confidence. This limitation is acute in overparameterized and low-data regimes, where models have many parameters relative to available data and can easily overfit.…

Statistical learning algorithms provide a generally-applicable framework to sidestep time-consuming experiments, or accurate physics-based modeling, but they introduce a further source of error on top of the intrinsic limitations of the…

Uncertainty in data is certainly one of the main problems in epidemiology, as shown by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The need for efficient methods capable of quantifying uncertainty in the mathematical model is essential in order to…

Cure models in survival analysis deal with populations in which a part of the individuals cannot experience the event of interest. Mixture cure models consider the target population as a mixture of susceptible and non-susceptible…

This paper presents a new exact method to calculate worst-case parameter realizations in two-stage robust optimization problems with categorical or binary-valued uncertain data. Traditional exact algorithms for these problems, notably…

Computational modeling of faulting processes is an essential tool for understanding earthquake mechanics but remains challenging due to the structural and material complexities of fault zones. The phase-field method has recently enabled…

Spatial misalignment arises when datasets are aggregated or collected at different spatial scales, leading to information loss. We develop a Bayesian disaggregation framework that links misaligned data to a continuous-domain model through…

We propose a nonparametric bootstrap procedure for two-phase stratified sampling without replacement. In this design, a weighted likelihood estimator is known to have smaller asymptotic variance than under the convenient assumption of…

We propose a general method to carry out a valid Bayesian analysis of a finite-dimensional `targeted' parameter in the presence of a finite-dimensional nuisance parameter. We apply our methods to causal inference based on estimating…