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Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-02 Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos , Emanuele Borgonovo , Xuefei Lu

We consider Bayesian variable selection for binary outcomes under a probit link with a spike-and-slab prior on the regression coefficients. Motivated by the computational challenges encountered by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-05-18 Augusto Fasano , Giovanni Rebaudo

We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for variable selection using Gaussian process regression, which is crucial for enhancing interpretability and model regularization. Our method employs nearest neighbor Gaussian processes, serving as…

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-03 Lachlan Astfalck , Deborshee Sen , Sayan Patra , Edward Cripps , David Dunson

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

In vision classification, generating inputs that elicit confident predictions is key to understanding model behavior and reliability, especially under adversarial or out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions. While traditional adversarial…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-03 Pirzada Suhail , Pravesh Khaparde , Amit Sethi

Completely random measures (CRMs) provide a broad class of priors, arguably, the most popular, for Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) analysis of trait allocations. As a peculiar property, CRM priors lead to predictive distributions that share…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-04-03 Mario Beraha , Stefano Favaro

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to…

The Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM; Tobar et al., 2015a) is a model for signals with complex spectral structure. A significant limitation of the GPCM is that it assumes a rapidly decaying spectrum: it can only model smooth…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-15 Wessel P. Bruinsma , Martin Tegnér , Richard E. Turner

The efficient resolution of Bayesian inverse problems remains challenging due to the high computational cost of traditional sampling methods. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) with a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-20 Daniil Sherki , Ivan Oseledets , Ekaterina Muravleva

Estimating a distribution given access to its unnormalized density is pivotal in Bayesian inference, where the posterior is generally known only up to an unknown normalizing constant. Variational inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-06 Daniel Ward , Mark Beaumont , Matteo Fasiolo

The generalization ability of machine learning models degrades significantly when the test distribution shifts away from the training distribution. We investigate the problem of training models that are robust to shifts caused by changes in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-19 Jiaheng Wei , Harikrishna Narasimhan , Ehsan Amid , Wen-Sheng Chu , Yang Liu , Abhishek Kumar

When performing Bayesian data analysis using a general linear mixed model, the resulting posterior density is almost always analytically intractable. However, if proper conditionally conjugate priors are used, there is a simple two-block…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-11-21 Tavis Abrahamsen , James P. Hobert

Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) methods are developed for Casual Inference. Generative methods are simulation-based methods that use a large training dataset to represent posterior distributions as a map (a.k.a. optimal transport) to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-25 Maria Nareklishvili , Nicholas Polson , Vadim Sokolov

In high-dimensional Bayesian statistics, various methods have been developed, including prior distributions that induce parameter sparsity to handle many parameters. Yet, these approaches often overlook the rich spectral structure of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-05-06 Tomoya Wakayama , Masaaki Imaizumi

Stochastic Gradient (SG) Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) are popular algorithms for Bayesian sampling in the presence of large datasets. However, they come with little theoretical guarantees and assessing their empirical…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-16 Lorenzo Mauri , Giacomo Zanella

Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-05-30 Frank van der Meulen , Moritz Schauer

Chance constrained programming (CCP) is a powerful framework for addressing optimization problems under uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce a novel Gradient-Guided Diffusion-based Optimization framework, termed GGDOpt, which tackles…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-10-15 Boyang Zhang , Zhiguo Wang , Ya-Feng Liu

Inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) are widely used in science and engineering. Although such problems are generally ill-posed, different regularisation approaches have been developed to ameliorate this problem.…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-03-23 Jan Povala , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Eky Febrianto , Fehmi Cirak , Mark Girolami

Deconvolution is a statistical inverse problem to estimate the distribution of a random variable based on its noisy observations. Despite the extensive studies on the topic, deconvolution with unknown noise distribution remains as a…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-04-06 Devavrat Shah , Dogyoon Song