相关论文: Prediction of Geoeffective CMEs Using SOHO Images …

Based on our tool for the early diagnostics of solar eruption geoeffectiveness (EDSEG tool; Chertok et al., 2013, 2015, 2017), we have analyzed space weather disturbances that occurred in early September 2017. Two flares,…

A powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) occurred on 2017 September 10 near the end of the declining phase of the historically weak solar cycle 24. We obtain new insights concerning the geometry and kinematics of CME-driven shocks in relation…

This study suggests a new data-driven model for the prediction of geomagnetic storm. The model which is an instance of Brain Emotional Learning Inspired Models (BELIMs), is known as the Brain Emotional Learning-based Prediction Model…

Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011--2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at…

The midlatitude climate and weather are shaped by storms, yet the factors governing their predictability remain insufficiently understood. Here, we use a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict and quantify uncertainty in the…

Unreliable predictions can occur when using artificial intelligence (AI) systems with negative consequences for downstream applications, particularly when employed for decision-making. Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic…

The recent developments in space instrumentation for solar observations and telemetry have caused the necessity of advanced pattern recognition tools for the different classes of solar events. The Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT)…

Geosystems are geological formations altered by humans activities such as fossil energy exploration, waste disposal, geologic carbon sequestration, and renewable energy generation. Geosystems also represent a critical link in the global…

A study of the kinematics and arrival times of CMEs at Earth, derived from time-elongation maps (J-maps) constructed from STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations, provides an opportunity to understand the heliospheric evolution of CMEs…

We present a novel algorithm that predicts the probability that the time derivative of the horizontal component of the ground magnetic field $dB/dt$ exceeds a specified threshold at a given location. This quantity provides important…

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other solar eruptive phenomena can be physically linked by combining data from a multitude of ground-based and space-based instruments alongside models, however this can be challenging for automated…

Among the eruptive activity phenomena observed on the Sun, the most technology threatening ones are flares with associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs). Flares with associated CMEs and SEPs are produced…

Rising concerns about the impact of space weather-related disruptions demand modelling and reliable forecasting of coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts. In this study, we demonstrate the application of the modified Miller-Turner (mMT) model…

In order to have a comprehensive view of the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun to deep interplanetary space beyond 1 au, we carry out a kinematic analysis of 7 CMEs in solar cycle 23. The events are…

In-situ measurements carried out by spacecraft in radial alignment are critical to advance our knowledge on the evolutionary behavior of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their magnetic structures during propagation through interplanetary…

We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In…

The near-Sun kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) determine the severity and arrival time of associated geomagnetic storms. We investigate the relationship between the deprojected speed and kinetic energy of CMEs and magnetic…

Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…

The British Geological Survey's global geomagnetic model, Model of the Earth's Magnetic Environment (MEME), is an important tool for calculating the earth's magnetic field, which is continually in flux. Whilst the ability to collect data…

Stealth coronal mass ejection (CMEs) are eruptions from the Sun that are not associated with appreciable low-coronal signatures. Because they often cannot be linked to a well-defined source region on the Sun, analysis of their initial…