相关论文: Breaching 1.5{\deg}C: Give me the odds
Climate extremes such as floods, storms, and heatwaves have caused severe economic and human losses across Europe in recent decades. To support the European Union's climate resilience efforts, we propose a statistical framework for…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
Greenhouse gas (GHG) metrics, that is, conversion factors to evaluate the emissions of non-CO2 climate forcers on a common scale with CO2, serve crucial functions upon the implementation of the Paris Agreement. While different metrics have…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how to cast in non-linear state space form. The parameters in…
Four sets of global average temperature anomalies, altered so that they refer to pre-industrial temperature levels (baseline), as recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are analysed in this study. Expectation values…
Two future scenarios that are not explicitly in the range of scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios) utilised by the IPCC. These two scenarios are the emissions trend under peak fossil fuel (for example, Mohr et al.,…
Ecological forecasts are model-based statements about currently unknown ecosystem states in time or space. For a model forecast to be useful to inform decision makers, model validation and verification determine adequateness. The measure of…
Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…
Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…
Climate change is a result of a complex system of interactions of greenhouse gases (GHG), the ocean, land, ice, and clouds. Large climate change models use several computers and solve several equations to predict the future climate. The…
This paper investigates the initial boundary value problem for a non-stationary one-dimensional heat equation that simulates the temperature distribution in freshwater ice near the Earth's poles. The mathematical model has been constructed…
In many applied fields it is desired to make predictions with the aim of assessing the plausibility of more severe events than those already recorded to safeguard against calamities that have not yet occurred. This problem can be analysed…
Recent analyses indicate that the amount of atmospheric CO2 required to cause dangerous climate change is at most 450 ppm, and likely less than that. Reductions of non-CO2 climate forcings can provide only moderate, albeit important,…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
Probabilistic temperature forecasts are potentially useful to the energy and weather derivatives industries. However, at present, they are little used. There are a number of reasons for this, but we believe this is in part due to…
For about the last 60 years the search for extraterrestrial intelligence has been monitoring the sky for evidence of remotely detectable technological life beyond Earth, with no positive results to date. While the lack of detection can be…
Global warming is a major environmental concern of our times. It has been suggested that the planting of trees could constitute a way of mitigating the adverse effects of the increasing anthropogenic carbon emissions. We developed a simple…
Extreme events are the major weather-related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them. However, lack of sufficient data makes their study…