相关论文: ABC3: Active Bayesian Causal Inference with Cohn C…

We address the problem of two-variable causal inference without intervention. This task is to infer an existing causal relation between two random variables, i.e. $X \rightarrow Y$ or $Y \rightarrow X$ , from purely observational data. As…

Causal inference methods are widely applied in the fields of medicine, policy, and economics. Central to these applications is the estimation of treatment effects to make decisions. Current methods make binary yes-or-no decisions based on…

This study designs an adaptive experiment for efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs). In each round of our adaptive experiment, an experimenter sequentially samples an experimental unit, assigns a treatment, and observes…

When deploying artificial agents in real-world environments where they interact with humans, it is crucial that their behavior is aligned with the values, social norms or other requirements of that environment. However, many environments…

Controlled experiments (A/B tests or randomized field experiments) are the de facto standard to make data-driven decisions when implementing changes and observing customer responses. The methodology to analyze such experiments should be…

Causal inference on populations embedded in social networks poses technical challenges, since the typical no interference assumption frequently does not hold. Existing methods developed in the context of network interference rely upon the…

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

Finding an effective medical treatment often requires a search by trial and error. Making this search more efficient by minimizing the number of unnecessary trials could lower both costs and patient suffering. We formalize this problem as…

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is typically used when the likelihood is either unavailable or intractable but where data can be simulated under different parameter settings using a forward model. Despite the recent interest in ABC,…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a family of computational techniques in Bayesian statistics. These techniques allow to fi t a model to data without relying on the computation of the model likelihood. They instead require to…

Causal inference is best understood using potential outcomes. This use is particularly important in more complex settings, that is, observational studies or randomized experiments with complications such as noncompliance. The topic of this…

Estimating the causal effects of an intervention in the presence of confounding is a frequently occurring problem in applications such as medicine. The task is challenging since there may be multiple confounding factors, some of which may…

Identifying covariates that modify treatment effects is a central problem in causal inference. Yet existing data-adaptive procedures do not provide finite-sample control over the expected number of false discoveries, risking spurious…

Information theoretic active learning has been widely studied for probabilistic models. For simple regression an optimal myopic policy is easily tractable. However, for other tasks and with more complex models, such as classification with…

Randomized experiments can provide unbiased estimates of sample average treatment effects. However, estimates of population treatment effects can be biased when the experimental sample and the target population differ. In this case, the…

Factorial experiments are ubiquitous in the social and biomedical sciences, but when units fail to comply with each assigned factors, identification and estimation of the average treatment effects become impossible without strong…

Complicated generative models often result in a situation where computing the likelihood of observed data is intractable, while simulating from the conditional density given a parameter value is relatively easy. Approximate Bayesian…

Contextual policy search allows adapting robotic movement primitives to different situations. For instance, a locomotion primitive might be adapted to different terrain inclinations or desired walking speeds. Such an adaptation is often…

A fundamental difficulty of causal learning is that causal models can generally not be fully identified based on observational data only. Interventional data, that is, data originating from different experimental environments, improves…