相关论文: Can Generalized Extreme Value Model Fit the Real S…

The maximum product of spacings (MPS) is employed in the estimation of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Efficient estimators are obtained by the MPS for all $\gamma$. This…

Modelling block maxima using the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution is a classical and widely used method for studying univariate extremes. It allows for theoretically motivated estimation of return levels, including extrapolation…

The problem of estimating return levels of river discharge, relevant in flood frequency analysis, is tackled by relying on the extreme value theory. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is assumed to model annual maxima values…

Whether or not stocks are predictable has been a topic of concern for decades.The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says that it is difficult for investors to make extra profits by predicting stock prices, but this may not be true,…

In this paper we discuss a general methodology to compute the market risk measure over long time horizons and at extreme percentiles, which are the typical conditions needed for estimating Economic Capital. The proposed approach extends the…

Generalized extreme value (GEV) regression is often more adapted when we investigate a relationship between a binary response variable $Y$ which represents a rare event and potentiel predictors $\mathbf{X}$. In particular, we use the…

Extreme value theory (EVT) provides an elegant mathematical tool for the statistical analysis of rare events. When data are collected from multiple population subgroups, because some subgroups may have less data available for extreme value…

Attaining ultra-reliable communication (URC) in fifth-generation (5G) and beyond networks requires deriving statistics of channel in ultra-reliable region by modeling the extreme events. Extreme value theory (EVT) has been previously…

The Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions play an important role in extreme value analyses, as models for threshold excesses and block maxima respectively. For each of these distributions we consider…

News items have a significant impact on stock markets but the ways are obscure. Many previous works have aimed at finding accurate stock market forecasting models. In this paper, we use text mining and sentiment analysis on Chinese online…

The maximum likelihood method offers a standard way to estimate the three parameters of a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Combined with the block maxima method, it is often used in practice to assess the extreme value index…

We study robust versions of pricing problems where customers choose products according to a generalized extreme value (GEV) choice model, and the choice parameters are not known exactly but lie in an uncertainty set. We show that, when the…

We introduce a new dynamical indicator of stability based on the Extreme Value statistics showing that it provides an insight on the local stability properties of dynamical systems. The indicator perform faster than other based on the…

To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…

We propose a novel neural network architecture that enables non-parametric calibration and generation of multivariate extreme value distributions (MEVs). MEVs arise from Extreme Value Theory (EVT) as the necessary class of models when…

Since the extreme value index (EVI) controls the tail behaviour of the distribution function, the estimation of EVI is a very important topic in extreme value theory. Recent developments in the estimation of EVI along with covariates have…

The estimation of the Extreme Value Index (EVI) is fundamental in extreme value analysis but suffers from high variance due to reliance on only a few extreme observations. We propose a control variates based transfer learning approach in a…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

Extreme value analysis in the presence of censoring is receiving much attention as it has applications in many disciplines, including survival and reliability studies. Estimation of extreme value index (EVI) is of primary importance as it…

Measuring model risk is required by regulators on financial and insurance markets. We separate model risk into parameter estimation risk and model specification risk, and we propose expected shortfall type model risk measures applied to…