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We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-29 Dawid Bernaciak , Jim E. Griffin

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are routinely used for modeling relationships between a response variable and a set of covariates. The simple form of a GLM comes with easy interpretability, but also leads to concerns about model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-10 Davide Agnoletto , Tommaso Rigon , David B. Dunson

We investigate the high-dimensional properties of robust regression estimators in the presence of heavy-tailed contamination of both the covariates and response functions. In particular, we provide a sharp asymptotic characterisation of…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-06-03 Urte Adomaityte , Leonardo Defilippis , Bruno Loureiro , Gabriele Sicuro

Generalization error (also known as the out-of-sample error) measures how well the hypothesis learned from training data generalizes to previously unseen data. Proving tight generalization error bounds is a central question in statistical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-03 Jian Li , Xuanyuan Luo , Mingda Qiao

Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-08 Henry D. van Eijk , Sujit K. Ghosh

Loss-based clustering methods, such as k-means and its variants, are standard tools for finding groups in data. However, the lack of quantification of uncertainty in the estimated clusters is a disadvantage. Model-based clustering based on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-11 Tommaso Rigon , Amy H. Herring , David B. Dunson

We study asymptotically normal estimation and confidence regions for low-dimensional parameters in high-dimensional sparse models. Our approach is based on the $\ell_1$-penalized M-estimator which is used for construction of a bias…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-10-06 Jana Janková , Sara van de Geer

The random dot product graph is a popular model for network data with extensions that accommodate dynamic (time-varying) networks. However, two significant deficiencies exist in the dynamic random dot product graph literature: (1) no…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-25 Joshua Daniel Loyal

We propose Bayesian Univariate-Guided Sparse Regression (BUGS), a novel global-local shrinkage framework that incorporates marginal association information directly into the prior through a continuous modulation of shrinkage. Unlike…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-27 Priyam Das

We present a generalization of the Cauchy/Lorentzian, Geman-McClure, Welsch/Leclerc, generalized Charbonnier, Charbonnier/pseudo-Huber/L1-L2, and L2 loss functions. By introducing robustness as a continuous parameter, our loss function…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2019-04-08 Jonathan T. Barron

We consider penalized regression models under a unified framework where the particular method is determined by the form of the penalty term. We propose a fully Bayesian approach that incorporates both sparse and dense settings and show how…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-25 Ding Xiang , Galin L. Jones

In this paper we study the frequentist properties of Bayesian approaches in linear high dimensional Hawkes processes in a sparse regime where the number of interaction functions acting on each component of the Hawkes process is much smaller…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-10-29 Judith Rousseau , Vincent Rivoirard , Déborah Sulem

Robust Bayesian methods for high-dimensional regression problems under diverse sparse regimes are studied. Traditional shrinkage priors are primarily designed to detect a handful of signals from tens of thousands of predictors in the…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-10-25 Se Yoon Lee , Peng Zhao , Debdeep Pati , Bani K. Mallick

Generalised Bayesian inference updates prior beliefs using a loss function, rather than a likelihood, and can therefore be used to confer robustness against possible mis-specification of the likelihood. Here we consider generalised Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-12 Takuo Matsubara , Jeremias Knoblauch , François-Xavier Briol , Chris. J. Oates

Structural damage due to excessive loading or environmental degradation typically occurs in localized areas in the absence of collapse. This prior information about the spatial sparseness of structural damage is exploited here by a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-03-29 Yong Huang , James L. Beck

In recent years, inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning has attracted significant attention. Tempered or generalized posterior distributions are frequently employed as direct and effective solutions. Nonetheless, the underlying mechanisms…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-23 Yinsong Chen , Samson S. Yu , Zhong Li , Chee Peng Lim

Standard simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models typically assume normally distributed errors, an assumption often violated in real-world datasets that frequently exhibit non-normal, skewed, or heavy-tailed characteristics. New SAR models…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-16 Anjana Wijayawardhana , David Gunawan , Thomas Suesse

This paper proposes a robust Bayesian accelerated failure time model for censored survival data. We develop a new family of life-time distributions using a scale mixture of the generalized gamma distributions, where we propose a novel super…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-16 Yasuyuki Hamura , Takahiro Onizuka , Shintaro Hashimoto , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Deep Gaussian processes have recently been proposed as natural objects to fit, similarly to deep neural networks, possibly complex features present in modern data samples, such as compositional structures. Adopting a Bayesian nonparametric…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-02-04 Ismaël Castillo , Thibault Randrianarisoa

In recent years, neural networks have revolutionized various domains, yet challenges such as hyperparameter tuning and overfitting remain significant hurdles. Bayesian neural networks offer a framework to address these challenges by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-16 Hayk Amirkhanian , Marco F. Huber