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Instrumental variable (IV) methods mitigate bias from unobserved confounding in observational causal inference but rely on the availability of a valid instrument, which can often be difficult or infeasible to identify in practice. In this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-08 Frances Dean , Jenna Fields , Radhika Bhalerao , Marie Charpignon , Ahmed Alaa

Estimating the individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is meaningful and practical in healthcare. Existing work mainly relies on the strong ignorability assumption that no hidden confounders exist, which may lead to bias…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-16 Ruoqi Liu , Changchang Yin , Ping Zhang

This paper considers how to classify the effects of interventions in causal models for outcomes and exposures observed over time. First, we demonstrate the limitations of the most common uses of potential outcomes and causal directed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Russell Steele , Naftali Weinberger , Tess Baker , Ian Shrier

Causal discovery with time series data remains a challenging yet increasingly important task across many scientific domains. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) and related methods have been proposed to study time series that are generated by…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Daniel Waxman , Petar M. Djurić

As an important problem in causal inference, we discuss the estimation of treatment effects (TEs). Representing the confounder as a latent variable, we propose Intact-VAE, a new variant of variational autoencoder (VAE), motivated by the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-22 Pengzhou Wu , Kenji Fukumizu

We study the problem of estimating causal effects under hidden confounding in the following unpaired data setting: we observe some covariates $X$ and an outcome $Y$ under different experimental conditions (environments) but do not observe…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-01-22 Felix Schur , Niklas Pfister , Peng Ding , Sach Mukherjee , Jonas Peters

To estimate the causal effect of treatments that vary over time from observational data, one must adjust for time-varying confounding. A common procedure to address confounding is the use of inverse probability of treatment weighting…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-22 Wouter M. R. Kant , Jesse H. Krijthe

Recommendation systems aim to predict users' feedback on items not exposed to them. Confounding bias arises due to the presence of unmeasured variables (e.g., the socio-economic status of a user) that can affect both a user's exposure and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-16 Qing Zhang , Xiaoying Zhang , Yang Liu , Hongning Wang , Min Gao , Jiheng Zhang , Ruocheng Guo

Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-11-25 Tsung-Yu Hsieh , Suhang Wang , Yiwei Sun , Vasant Honavar

Detecting latent confounders from proxy variables is an essential problem in causal effect estimation. Previous approaches are limited to low-dimensional proxies, sorted proxies, and binary treatments. We remove these assumptions and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-03-22 Nathan Mankovich , Homer Durand , Emiliano Diaz , Gherardo Varando , Gustau Camps-Valls

Many studies run two-way fixed effects instrumental variable (TWFEIV) regressions, leveraging variation in the timing of policy adoption across units as an instrument for treatment. This paper studies the properties of the TWFEIV estimator…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-05-28 Sho Miyaji

Estimating treatment effects, especially individualized treatment effects (ITE), using observational data is challenging due to the complex situations of confounding bias. Existing approaches for estimating treatment effects from…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-07-26 Zheng Feng , Mattia Prosperi , Jiang Bian

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of variational inference in latent variable models for survival analysis, emphasizing the distinctive challenges associated with applying variational methods to survival data. We identify a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-05 Chuanhui Liu , Xiao Wang

Discovering the complete set of causal relations among a group of variables is a challenging unsupervised learning problem. Often, this challenge is compounded by the fact that there are latent or hidden confounders. When only observational…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-19 Anqi Liu , Hao Liu , Tongxin Li , Saeed Karimi-Bidhendi , Yisong Yue , Anima Anandkumar

Causal representation learning aims to unveil latent high-level causal representations from observed low-level data. One of its primary tasks is to provide reliable assurance of identifying these latent causal models, known as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-02 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-26 Tathagata Basu , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

In unsupervised causal representation learning for sequential data with time-delayed latent causal influences, strong identifiability results for the disentanglement of causally-related latent variables have been established in stationary…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-02 Xiangchen Song , Weiran Yao , Yewen Fan , Xinshuai Dong , Guangyi Chen , Juan Carlos Niebles , Eric Xing , Kun Zhang

In this work, we propose a novel generative method to identify the causal impact and apply it to prediction tasks. We conduct causal impact analysis using interventional and counterfactual perspectives. First, applying interventions, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-03 Soma Bandyopadhyay , Sudeshna Sarkar

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin

In this paper we review an approach to estimating the causal effect of a time-varying treatment on time to some event of interest. This approach is designed for the situation where the treatment may have been repeatedly adapted to patient…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-06-13 J. J. Lok , R. D. Gill , A. W. van der Vaart , J. M. Robins