相关论文: Solaris: A Foundation Model of the Sun

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…

The next decade will be an exciting period for solar astrophysics, as new ground- and space-based instrumentation will provide unprecedented observations of the solar atmosphere and heliosphere. The synergy between modeling effort and…

Accurate and reliable solar flare predictions are essential to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure. However, the current performance of solar flare forecasting is insufficient. In this study, we address the task of…

The need to forecast solar irradiation at a specific location over short-time horizons has acquired immense importance. In this paper, we report on analyses results involving statistical and machine learning techniques to predict hourly…

The variable Sun is the most likely candidate for natural forcing of past climate change on time scales of 50 to 1000 years. Evidence for this understanding is that the terrestrial climate correlates positively with solar activity. During…

We report on the results of the Sun in Time multi-wavelength program (X-rays to the UV) of solar analogs with ages covering ~0.1-7 Gyr. The chief science goals are to study the solar magnetic dynamo and to determine the radiative and…

We discuss the difficulties of predicting the solar cycle using mean-field models. Here we argue that these difficulties arise owing to the significant modulation of the solar activity cycle, and that this modulation arises owing to either…

We discuss a prediction of the solar activity on a short time-scale applying the method based on a combination of a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model and the artificial neural network. The artificial neural network which serves as a…

Ground-based whole sky imagers (WSIs) can provide localized images of the sky of high temporal and spatial resolution, which permits fine-grained cloud observation. In this paper, we show how images taken by WSIs can be used to estimate…

For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable…

Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…

The great success of Helioseismology resides in the remarkable progress achieved in the understanding of the structure and dynamics of the solar interior. This success mainly relies on the ability to conceive, implement, and operate…

Existing action-conditioned video generation models (video world models) are limited to single-agent perspectives, failing to capture the multi-agent interactions of real-world environments. We introduce Solaris, a multiplayer video world…

Stellar magnetic fields are produced by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in their interior -- which relies on the interaction between plasma flows and magnetic fields. The Sun, being a well-observed star, offers an unique…

Current solar flare predictions often lack precise quantification of their reliability, resulting in frequent false alarms, particularly when dealing with datasets skewed towards extreme events. To improve the trustworthiness of space…

Global and regional climate model projections are useful for gauging future patterns of climate variables, including solar radiation, but data from these models is often too coarse to assess local impacts. Within the context of solar…

Changes in solar irradiance and in its spectral distribution are among the main natural drivers of the climate on Earth. However, irradiance measurements are only available for less than four decades, while assessment of solar influence on…

Human living environment is influenced by intense solar activity. The solar activity exhibits periodicity and regularity. Although many deep-learning models are currently used for solar cycle prediction, most of them are based on a…

The solar contribution to global mean air surface temperature change is analyzed by using an empirical bi-scale climate model characterized by both fast and slow characteristic time responses to solar forcing: $\tau_1 =0.4 \pm 0.1$ yr, and…

Despite the advances in the field of solar energy, improvements of solar forecasting techniques, addressing the intermittent electricity production, remain essential for securing its future integration into a wider energy supply. A…