相关论文: Customer Lifetime Value Prediction with Uncertaint…

Countless research works of deep neural networks (DNNs) in the task of credit card fraud detection have focused on improving the accuracy of point predictions and mitigating unwanted biases by building different network architectures or…

Monte Carlo simulations are widely used to simulate complex molecular systems, but standard approaches suffer from metastability. Lately, the use of non-local proposal updates in a collective-variable (CV) space has been proposed in several…

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

In this work, we propose the use of dropouts as a Bayesian estimator for increasing the generalizability of a deep neural network (DNN) for speech enhancement. By using Monte Carlo (MC) dropout, we show that the DNN performs better…

Dropout has been demonstrated as a simple and effective module to not only regularize the training process of deep neural networks, but also provide the uncertainty estimation for prediction. However, the quality of uncertainty estimation…

While the use of deep learning in drug discovery is gaining increasing attention, the lack of methods to compute reliable errors in prediction for Neural Networks prevents their application to guide decision making in domains where…

Probabilistic prediction of sequences from images and other high-dimensional data is a key challenge, particularly in risk-sensitive applications. In these settings, it is often desirable to quantify the uncertainty associated with the…

The Computer_Aided Diagnosis (CAD) systems facilitate accurate diagnosis of diseases. The development of CADs by leveraging third generation neural network, namely, Spiking Neural Network (SNN), is essential to utilize of the benefits of…

Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) is a popular Bayesian sampling method. For the log-concave distribution function, the method converges exponentially fast, up to a controllable discretization error. However, the method requires the evaluation of…

In this paper we present a new approach to control variates for improving computational efficiency of Ensemble Monte Carlo. We present the approach using simulation of paths of a time-dependent nonlinear stochastic equation. The core idea…

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

As deep learning applications are becoming more and more pervasive in robotics, the question of evaluating the reliability of inferences becomes a central question in the robotics community. This domain, known as predictive uncertainty, has…

Uncertainty estimation in Neural Networks (NNs) is vital in improving reliability and confidence in predictions, particularly in safety-critical applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BayNNs) with Dropout as an approximation offer a…

Monte Carlo methods to evaluate and maximize the likelihood function enable the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, facilitating scientific investigation using models for which the likelihood function is intractable.…

We analyse a multilevel Monte Carlo method for the approximation of distribution functions of univariate random variables. Since, by assumption, the target distribution is not known explicitly, approximations have to be used. We provide an…

We cast visual retrieval as a regression problem by posing triplet loss as a regression loss. This enables epistemic uncertainty estimation using dropout as a Bayesian approximation framework in retrieval. Accordingly, Monte Carlo (MC)…

Research on Knowledge Tracing (KT) models traditionally focuses on improving predictive accuracy. However, responsible real-world deployment requires models to know when to defer uncertain predictions to a human teacher. We introduce an…

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

Dropout is used as a practical tool to obtain uncertainty estimates in large vision models and reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. But to obtain well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, a grid-search over the dropout probabilities is necessary…

Continuous-time empirical dynamic discrete choice games offer notable computational advantages over discrete-time models. This paper addresses remaining computational and econometric challenges to further improve both model solution and…