相关论文: The Value of Information from Sell-side Analysts

Large Language Models (LLMs) are frequently utilized as sources of knowledge for question-answering. While it is known that LLMs may lack access to real-time data or newer data produced after the model's cutoff date, it is less clear how…

A decision maker is choosing between an active action (e.g., purchase a house, invest certain stock) and a passive action. The payoff of the active action depends on the buyer's private type and also an unknown state of nature. An…

This paper develops an interpretive framework for divergence P-values and S-values within a descriptive frequentist perspective. Statistical analysis is framed as operating within idealized worlds defined by a set of assumptions and a…

This paper proposes a novel approach to explain the predictions made by data-driven methods. Since such predictions rely heavily on the data used for training, explanations that convey information about how the training data affects the…

Stock market movements are influenced by public and private information shared through news articles, company reports, and social media discussions. Analyzing these vast sources of data can give market participants an edge to make profit.…

This article presents a comprehensive methodology for processing financial datasets of Apple Inc., encompassing quarterly income and daily stock prices, spanning from March 31, 2009, to December 31, 2023. Leveraging 60 observations for…

Objectives: Value of information (VOI) analyses can help policy-makers make informed decisions about whether to conduct and how to design future studies. Historically, a computationally expensive method to compute the Expected Value of…

Training data influence estimation methods quantify the contribution of training documents to a model's output, making them a promising source of information for example-based explanations. As humans cannot interpret thousands of documents,…

We study the welfare effects of overreaction to information in the form of diagnostic expectations in markets with asymmetric information, and the effect of a simple intervention in the form of a tax or a subsidy. A large enough level of…

Knowledge of the association information between the attributes in a data set provides insight into the underlying structure of the data and explains the relationships (independence, synergy, redundancy) between the attributes and class (if…

Financial institutions and insurance companies that analyze the evolution and sources of profits and losses often look at risk factors only at discrete reporting dates, ignoring the detailed paths. Continuous-time decompositions avoid this…

Shapley values underlie one of the most popular model-agnostic methods within explainable artificial intelligence. These values are designed to attribute the difference between a model's prediction and an average baseline to the different…

We process private equity transactions to predict public market behavior with a logit model. Specifically, we estimate our model to predict quarterly returns for both the broad market and for individual sectors. Our hypothesis is that…

The informational context is regularly questioned in a transitional economic regime like the one implemented in China or Vietnam. This article investigates this issue and the predictive power of fundamental analysis in such context and more…

Personalized item ranking has been a crucial component contributing to the performance of recommender systems. As a representative approach, pairwise ranking directly optimizes the ranking with user implicit feedback by constructing…

We utilize FinBERT, a domain-specific transformer model, to parse 6.5 million sentences from 16,428 S&P 500 quarterly earnings call transcripts (2015-2025) and demonstrate that post-earnings stock returns are not equally affected by all…

This paper diverges from previous literature by considering the utility maximization problem in the context of investors having the freedom to actively acquire additional information to mitigate estimation risk. We derive closed-form value…

This study identifies and quantifies a significant informational friction embedded in the SEC Form 144 disclosure regime, characterized as predictive decoupling. Drawing on a theoretical foundation of welfare economics, the article argues…

With origins in game theory, probabilistic values like Shapley values, Banzhaf values, and semi-values have emerged as a central tool in explainable AI. They are used for feature attribution, data attribution, data valuation, and more.…

Distributional data Shapley value (DShapley) has recently been proposed as a principled framework to quantify the contribution of individual datum in machine learning. DShapley develops the foundational game theory concept of Shapley values…