相关论文: The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Monte Carlo Simu…
Monte Carlo simulations are based on the manipulation of random numbers to evaluate probable outcomes, with applicability in a variety of different fields. By assigning probabilities, which can be determined a priori, to various events, it…
Monte Carlo simulations are widely used in many areas including particle accelerators. In this lecture, after a short introduction and reviewing of some statistical backgrounds, we will discuss methods such as direct inversion, rejection…
I run Monte Carlo simulations of content production over random Watts-Strogatz graphs to show various effects relevant to modeling and understanding Randomized Controlled Trials on social networks: the network effect, spillover effect,…
Probability Theory and Statistics are two of the most useful mathematical fields, and also two of the most difficult to learn. In other science fields, as Physics, experimentation is an useful tool to develop students intuition, but the…
Simulation studies are used to evaluate and compare the properties of statistical methods in controlled experimental settings. In most cases, performing a simulation study requires knowledge of the true value of the parameter, or estimand,…
The primary focus of Monte Carlo simulation is to identify and quantify risk related to uncertainty and variability in spreadsheet model inputs. The stress of Monte Carlo simulation often reveals logical errors in the underlying spreadsheet…
Online experiments such as Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) or A/B-tests are the bread and butter of modern platforms on the web. They are conducted continuously to allow platforms to estimate the causal effect of replacing system…
Monte Carlo experiments produce samples in order to estimate features of a given distribution. However, simultaneous estimation of means and quantiles has received little attention, despite being common practice. In this setting we…
We consider two recent suggestions for how to perform an empirically motivated Monte Carlo study to help select a treatment effect estimator under unconfoundedness. We show theoretically that neither is likely to be informative except under…
Distortion risk measures play a critical role in quantifying risks associated with uncertain outcomes. Accurately estimating these risk measures in the context of computationally expensive simulation models that lack analytical tractability…
We explain in detail how to estimate mean values and assess statistical errors for arbitrary functions of elementary observables in Monte Carlo simulations. The method is to estimate and sum the relevant autocorrelation functions, which is…
Contemporary scientific studies often rely on the understanding of complex quantum systems via computer simulation. This paper initiates the statistical study of quantum simulation and proposes a Monte Carlo method for estimating…
In statistics and machine learning, approximation of an intractable integration is often achieved by using the unbiased Monte Carlo estimator, but the variances of the estimation are generally high in many applications. Control variates…
Monte Carlo estimation in plays a crucial role in stochastic reaction networks. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires sampling a large number of trajectories. We propose control variates…
Monte Carlo simulation is an essential component of experimental particle physics in all the phases of its life-cycle: the investigation of the physics reach of detector concepts, the design of facilities and detectors, the development and…
Monte Carlo simulations are one of the major tools in statistical physics, complex system science, and other fields, and an increasing number of these simulations is run on distributed systems like clusters or grids. This raises the issue…
We investigate the mechanism that leads to systematic deviations in cluster Monte Carlo simulations when correlated pseudo-random numbers are used. We present a simple model, which enables an analysis of the effects due to correlations in…
The steadily increasing size of scientific Monte Carlo simulations and the desire for robust, correct, and reproducible results necessitates rigorous testing procedures for scientific simulations in order to detect numerical problems and…
High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight…
In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…