相关论文: Improving the accuracy of food security prediction…
Timely and accurate conflict event data are essential for real-time monitoring, forecasting, and policy response. Yet near-real-time conflict datasets such as the Armed Conflict Location \& Event Data Project (ACLED) are subject to…
Reports from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) serve as the benchmark for food security predictions which is crucial for stakeholders in planning interventions and support people in need. This paper assesses the predictive…
In the face of climate change-induced droughts, vulnerable regions encounter severe threats to food security, demanding urgent humanitarian assistance. This paper introduces a causal inference framework for the Horn of Africa, aiming to…
Anticipating the outbreak of a food crisis is crucial to efficiently allocate emergency relief and reduce human suffering. However, existing food insecurity early warning systems rely on risk measures that are often delayed, outdated, or…
Hunger crises are critical global issues affecting millions, particularly in low-income and developing countries. This research investigates how machine learning can be utilized to predict and inform decisions regarding famine and hunger…
Climate change is becoming a widely recognized risk factor of farmer-herder conflict in Africa. Using an 8 year dataset (Jan 2015 to Sep 2022) of detailed weather and terrain data across four African nations, we apply statistical and…
Global concern over food prices and security has been exacerbated by the impacts of armed conflicts such as the Russia Ukraine War, pandemic diseases, and climate change. Traditionally, analyzing global food prices and their associations…
Early warning systems are an essential tool for effective humanitarian action. Advance warnings on impending disasters facilitate timely and targeted response which help save lives and livelihoods. In this work we present a quantitative…
Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this…
Afghanistan has witnessed many armed conflicts throughout history, especially in the past 20 years; these events have had a significant impact on human lives, including military and civilians, with potential fatalities. In this research, we…
Food security is a complex, multidimensional concept challenging to measure comprehensively. Effective anticipation, monitoring, and mitigation of food crises require timely and comprehensive global data. This paper introduces the…
This article illustrates an approach to forecasting change in conflict fatalities designed to address the complexity of the drivers and processes of armed conflicts. The design of this approach is based on two main choices. First, to…
The escalating food insecurity in Africa, caused by factors such as war, climate change, and poverty, demonstrates the critical need for advanced early warning systems. Traditional methodologies, relying on expert-curated data encompassing…
Food security, a global concern, necessitates precise and diverse data-driven solutions to address its multifaceted challenges. This paper explores the integration of AI foundation models across various food security applications,…
Today's conflicts are becoming increasingly complex, fluid and fragmented, often involving a host of national and international actors with multiple and often divergent interests. This development poses significant challenges for conflict…
Forecasting crop yields is important for food security, in particular to predict where crop production is likely to drop. Climate records and remotely-sensed data have become instrumental sources of data for crop yield forecasting systems.…
The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…
With billions of people facing moderate or severe food insecurity, the resilience of the global food supply will be of increasing concern due to the effects of climate change and geopolitical events. In this paper we describe a framework to…
Conflict fatalities tend to follow heavy-tailed statistical distributions. A 2005 fusion-fission theory predicts mathematically that for armed groups operating in dynamically evolving clusters within a given conflict, the number of…
Today's conflicts are becoming increasingly complex, fluid and fragmented, often involving a host of national and international actors with multiple and often divergent interests. This development poses significant challenges for conflict…