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Causal mediation analysis is routinely conducted by applied researchers in a variety of disciplines. The goal of such an analysis is to investigate alternative causal mechanisms by examining the roles of intermediate variables that lie in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2010-11-05 Kosuke Imai , Luke Keele , Teppei Yamamoto

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular likelihood-free inference method for models with intractable likelihood functions. As ABC methods usually rely on comparing summary statistics of observed and simulated data, the choice of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-22 Ayush Bharti , Louis Filstroff , Samuel Kaski

Many models of interest in the natural and social sciences have no closed-form likelihood function, which means that they cannot be treated using the usual techniques of statistical inference. In the case where such models can be…

统计计算 · 统计学 2012-07-19 Simon Barthelmé , Nicolas Chopin

Unobserved confounding presents a major threat to causal inference from observational studies. Recently, several authors suggest that this problem may be overcome in a shared confounding setting where multiple treatments are independent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-25 Dehan Kong , Shu Yang , Linbo Wang

Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) treatment presents high individual-level heterogeneity, with outcomes ranging from complete abstinence to persistent heavy drinking. This variability-driven by complex behavioral, social, and environmental…

Background: Pairwise and network meta-analyses using fixed effect and random effects models are commonly applied to synthesise evidence from randomised controlled trials. The models differ in their assumptions and the interpretation of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-08-04 Shijie Ren , Jeremy E. Oakley , John W. Stevens

Many scientific questions in biomedical, environmental, and psychological research involve understanding the effects of multiple factors on outcomes. While factorial experiments are ideal for this purpose, randomized controlled treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-03 Ruoqi Yu , Peng Ding

Federated learning of causal estimands may greatly improve estimation efficiency by leveraging data from multiple study sites, but robustness to heterogeneity and model misspecifications is vital for ensuring validity. We develop a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-06 Larry Han , Jue Hou , Kelly Cho , Rui Duan , Tianxi Cai

Many causal and structural effects depend on regressions. Examples include policy effects, average derivatives, regression decompositions, average treatment effects, causal mediation, and parameters of economic structural models. The…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-10-25 Victor Chernozhukov , Whitney K Newey , Rahul Singh

The average treatment effect (ATE), the mean difference in potential outcomes under treatment and control, is a canonical causal effect. Overlap, which says that all subjects have non-zero probability of either treatment status, is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-14 Herbert P. Susmann , Alec McClean , Iván Díaz

Assessing causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding is a challenging problem. Existing studies leveraged proxy variables or multiple treatments to adjust for the confounding bias. In particular, the latter approach attributes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-17 Yong Wu , Mingzhou Liu , Jing Yan , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

We introduce causal inference reasoning to cross-over trials, with a focus on Thorough QT (TQT) studies. For such trials, we propose different sets of assumptions and consider their impact on the modelling strategy and estimation procedure.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-31 Jeppe Ekstrand Halkjær Madsen , Thomas Scheike , Christian Pipper

Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-07-11 Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

Objective: To develop prognostic survival models for predicting adverse outcomes after catheter ablation treatment for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: We used a linked dataset including hospital administrative data,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-19 Juan C. Quiroz , David Brieger , Louisa Jorm , Raymond W Sy , Benjumin Hsu , Blanca Gallego

Most causal inference studies rely on the assumption of overlap to estimate population or sample average causal effects. When data exhibit non-overlap, estimation of these estimands requires reliance on model specifications, due to poor…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-17 Rachel C. Nethery , Fabrizia Mealli , Francesca Dominici

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data with unobserved confounders. The CATE function maps baseline covariates to individual causal effect predictions and is key for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-09 Nathan Kallus , Xiaojie Mao , Angela Zhou

Real-life statistical samples are often plagued by selection bias, which complicates drawing conclusions about the general population. When learning causal relationships between the variables is of interest, the sample may be assumed to be…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-11-15 Angelos P. Armen , Robin J. Evans

Estimating individual-level treatment effect from observational data is a fundamental problem in causal inference and has attracted increasing attention in the fields of education, healthcare, and public policy.In this work, we concentrate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-10 Hui Meng , Keping Yang , Xuyu Peng , Bo Zheng

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in…

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