相关论文: A note on Bayesian R-squared for generalized addit…

Multiple generalized additive models (GAMs) are a type of distributional regression wherein parameters of probability distributions depend on predictors through smooth functions, with selection of the degree of smoothness via $L_2$…

Mixture autoregressive (MAR) models provide a flexible way to model time series with predictive distributions which depend on the recent history of the process and are able to accommodate asymmetry and multimodality. Bayesian inference for…

The main challenge in Bayesian models is to determine the posterior for the model parameters. Already, in models with only one or few parameters, the analytical posterior can only be determined in special settings. In Bayesian neural…

The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is a powerful tool and has been well studied. This model class helps to identify additive regression structure. Via available test procedures one may identify the regression structure even sharper if…

The article develops a hybrid Variational Bayes algorithm that combines the mean-field and fixed-form Variational Bayes methods. The new estimation algorithm can be used to approximate any posterior without relying on conjugate priors. We…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

This paper develops a methodology for approximating the posterior first two moments of the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. Partially specified probability models, which are defined only by specifying means and variances, are…

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

Models with random effects, such as generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs), are often used for analysing clustered data. Parameter inference with these models is difficult because of the presence of cluster-specific random effects, which…

The Tweedie Compound Poisson-Gamma model is routinely used for modeling non-negative continuous data with a discrete probability mass at zero. Mixed models with random effects account for the covariance structure related to the grouping…

A conventional Bayesian approach to prediction uses the posterior distribution to integrate out parameters in a density for unobserved data conditional on the observed data and parameters. When the true posterior is intractable, it is…

We propose a general framework for obtaining probabilistic solutions to PDE-based inverse problems. Bayesian methods are attractive for uncertainty quantification but assume knowledge of the likelihood model or data generation process. This…

Projection predictive inference is a decision theoretic Bayesian approach that decouples model estimation from decision making. Given a reference model previously built including all variables present in the data, projection predictive…

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

We use Bayesian model selection paradigms, such as group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator priors, to facilitate generalized additive model selection. Our approach allows for the effects of continuous predictors to be…

We present the ARR2 prior, a joint prior over the auto-regressive components in Bayesian time-series models and their induced $R^2$. Compared to other priors designed for times-series models, the ARR2 prior allows for flexible and intuitive…

Due to the widespread use of complex machine learning models in real-world applications, it is becoming critical to explain model predictions. However, these models are typically black-box deep neural networks, explained post-hoc via…

Interpretability of learning-to-rank models is a crucial yet relatively under-examined research area. Recent progress on interpretable ranking models largely focuses on generating post-hoc explanations for existing black-box ranking models,…

Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…