相关论文: Quantifying socio-temporal effects of loan delinqu…
Joint latent class modelling has been developed considerably in the past two decades. In some instances, the models are linked by the latent class k (i.e. the number of subgroups), in others they are joined by shared random effects or a…
Digital banking and online communication have made modern bank runs faster and more networked than the canonical queue-at-the-branch setting. While equilibrium models explain why strategic complementarities generate run risk, they offer…
The Logical Execution Time (LET) model has been gaining industrial attention because of its timing and data-flow deterministic characteristics, which simplify the computation of end-to-end latencies of multi-rate cause-effect chains at the…
Recent advances in natural language processing highlight two key factors for improving reasoning in large language models (LLMs): (i) allocating more test-time compute tends to help on harder problems but often introduces redundancy in the…
Many prediction problems on social networks, from recommendations to anomaly detection, can be approached by modeling network data as a sequence of relational events and then leveraging the resulting model for prediction. Conditional logit…
Modelling the dynamics of interactions in a neuronal ensemble is an important problem in functional connectivity research. One popular framework is latent factor models (LFMs), which have achieved notable success in decoding neuronal…
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate…
This paper introduces a novel methodology that utilizes latency to unveil time-series dependence patterns. A customized statistical test detects memory dependence in event sequences by analyzing their inter-event time distributions.…
We introduce LatentTrack (LT), a sequential neural architecture for online probabilistic prediction under nonstationary dynamics. LT performs causal Bayesian filtering in a low-dimensional latent space and uses a lightweight hypernetwork to…
This paper introduces a framework to analyze time-varying spillover effects in panel data. We consider panel models where a unit's outcome depends not only on its own characteristics (private effects) but also on the characteristics of…
Individuals or companies in a large social or financial network often display rather heterogeneous behaviors for various reasons. In this work, we propose a network vector autoregressive model with a latent group structure to model…
In this paper we describe an algorithm for predicting the websites at risk in a long range hacking activity, while jointly inferring the provenance and evolution of vulnerabilities on websites over continuous time. Specifically, we use…
In a real-life setting, little is known regarding the effectiveness of statins for primary prevention among older adults, and analysis of observational data can add crucial information on the benefits of actual patterns of use. Latent class…
Linear regression on network-linked observations has been an essential tool in modeling the relationship between response and covariates with additional network structures. Previous methods either lack inference tools or rely on restrictive…
Latent tree analysis seeks to model the correlations among a set of random variables using a tree of latent variables. It was proposed as an improvement to latent class analysis --- a method widely used in social sciences and medicine to…
We show that moment inequalities in a wide variety of economic applications have a particular linear conditional structure. We use this structure to construct uniformly valid confidence sets that remain computationally tractable even in…
Understanding disaggregate channels in the transmission of monetary policy is of crucial importance for effectively implementing policy measures. We extend the empirical econometric literature on the role of production networks in the…
To understand how the interconnected and interdependent world of the twenty-first century operates and make model-based predictions, joint probability models for networks and interdependent outcomes are needed. We propose a comprehensive…
Machine learning plays an essential role in preventing financial losses in the banking industry. Perhaps the most pertinent prediction task that can result in billions of dollars in losses each year is the assessment of credit risk (i.e.,…
We study the problem of learning a latent tree graphical model where samples are available only from a subset of variables. We propose two consistent and computationally efficient algorithms for learning minimal latent trees, that is, trees…