相关论文: Probabilistic inference when the population space …

Statistical modeling plays a fundamental role in understanding the underlying mechanism of massive data (statistical inference) and predicting the future (statistical prediction). Although all models are wrong, researchers try their best to…

The goal of machine learning is to find models that minimize prediction error on data that has not yet been seen. Its operational paradigm assumes access to a dataset $S$ and articulates a scheme for evaluating how well a given model…

Topological models of empirical and formal inquiry are increasingly prevalent. They have emerged in such diverse fields as domain theory [1, 16], formal learning theory [18], epistemology and philosophy of science [10, 15, 8, 9, 2],…

Conventional statistics begins with a model, and assigns a likelihood of obtaining any particular set of data. The opposite approach, beginning with the data and assigning a likelihood to any particular model, is explored here for the case…

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…

Many statistical experiments involve comparing multiple population groups. For example, a public opinion poll may ask which of several political candidates commands the most support; a social scientific survey may report the most common of…

This paper deals with the problem of estimating the probability that one event was a cause of another in a given scenario. Using structural-semantical definitions of the probabilities of necessary or sufficient causation (or both), we show…

Latent space models are powerful statistical tools for modeling and understanding network data. While the importance of accounting for uncertainty in network analysis has been well recognized, the current literature predominantly focuses on…

We consider the problem of estimating the unconditional distribution of a post-model-selection estimator. The notion of a post-model-selection estimator here refers to the combined procedure resulting from first selecting a model (e.g., by…

The comparison of a parameter in $k$ populations is a classical problem in statistics. Testing for the equality of means or variances are typical examples. Most procedures designed to deal with this problem assume that $k$ is fixed and that…

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

In real-world applications, observations are often constrained to a small fraction of a system. Such spatial subsampling can be caused by the inaccessibility or the sheer size of the system, and cannot be overcome by longer sampling.…

Finding the underlying probability distributions of a set of observed sequences under the constraint that each sequence is generated i.i.d by a distinct distribution is considered. The number of distributions, and hence the number of…

For testing the statistical significance of a treatment effect, we usually compare between two parts of a population, one is exposed to the treatment, and the other is not exposed to it. Standard parametric and nonparametric two-sample…

Choice models, which capture popular preferences over objects of interest, play a key role in making decisions whose eventual outcome is impacted by human choice behavior. In most scenarios, the choice model, which can effectively be viewed…

The true process that generated data cannot be determined when multiple explanations are possible. Prediction requires a model of the probability that a process, chosen randomly from the set of candidate explanations, generates some future…

Bootstrap methods are increasingly accepted as one of the common approaches in constructing confidence intervals in bibliometric studies. Typical bootstrap methods assume that the statistical population is infinite. When the statistical…

We consider the problem of estimating the missing mass, partition function or evidence and its probability distribution in the case that for each sample point in the discrete sample space its (unnormalized) probability mass is revealed.…

Due to rapid data growth, statistical analysis of massive datasets often has to be carried out in a distributed fashion, either because several datasets stored in separate physical locations are all relevant to a given problem, or simply to…

Although models for count data with over-dispersion have been widely considered in the literature, models for under-dispersion -- the opposite phenomenon -- have received less attention as it is only relatively common in particular research…