相关论文: Predicting Dengue Outbreaks: A Dynamic Approach wi…
Markov Chains with variable length are useful stochastic models for data compression that avoid the curse of dimensionality faced by that full Markov Chains. In this paper we introduce a Variable Length Markov Chain whose transition…
Infinite random sequences of letters can be viewed as stochastic chains or as strings produced by a source, in the sense of information theory. The relationship between Variable Length Markov Chains (VLMC) and probabilistic dynamical…
We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…
We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…
The transmission of vector infectious diseases, which produces complex spatiotemporal patterns, is analyzed by a periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced…
This study aims to estimate the parameters of a stochastic exposed-infected epidemiological model for the transmission dynamics of notifiable infectious diseases, based on observations related to isolated cases counts only. We use the…
Bangladesh's worsening dengue crisis, fueled by its tropical climate, poor waste management infrastructure, rapid urbanization, and dense population, has led to increasingly deadly outbreaks, posing a significant public health threat. To…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak…
Dengue fever is a vector-borne disease mostly endemic to tropical and subtropical countries that affect millions every year and is considered a significant burden for public health. Its geographic distribution makes it highly sensitive to…
This article proposes a new generalization of the Multivariate Markov Chains (MMC) model. The future values of a Markov chain commonly depend on only the past values of the chain in an autoregressive fashion. The generalization proposed in…
An age structured mathematical model with time dependent parameters is developed to investigate the dynamics of dengue transmission. Its properties are thoroughly analyzed in the first part of this work, as for example its disease free…
Predicting an infectious disease can help reduce its impact by advising public health interventions and personal preventive measures. Novel data streams, such as Internet and social media data, have recently been reported to benefit…
Dengue fever is a virulent disease spreading over 100 tropical and subtropical countries in Africa, the Americas, and Asia. This arboviral disease affects around 400 million people globally, severely distressing the healthcare systems. The…
A variety of models have been developed to forecast dengue cases to date. However, it remains a challenge to predict major dengue outbreaks that need timely public warnings the most. In this paper, we introduce CrossLag, an environmentally…
There are nowadays a huge load of publications about dengue epidemic models, which mostly employ deterministic differential equations. The analytical properties of deterministic models are always of particular interest by many experts, but…
Variable-length Markov chains (VLMCs) are a flexible class of higher-order Markov models that admit a natural representation as context trees. Existing Bayesian methods for specifying prior distributions on tree structures rely on branching…
By introducing a key combinatorial structure for words produced by a Variable Length Markov Chain (VLMC), the longest internal suffix, precise characterizations of existence and uniqueness of a stationary probability measure for a VLMC…
Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease increasing dramatically over the past years due to improvement in human mobility. The movement of host individuals between and within the patches are captured via a residence-time matrix. A system of…
More than ever, today we are left with the abundance of molecular data outpaced by the advancements of the phylogenomic methods. Especially in the case of presence of many genes over a set of species under the phylogeny question, more…
Dengue incidence forecasting using hybrid models has been surging in the data rich world. Hybridization of statistical time series forecasting models and machine learning models are explored for dengue forecasting with different degrees of…