相关论文: PostCast: Generalizable Postprocessing for Precipi…

Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are…

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to decision-making. A prominent example is probabilistic forecasting in numerical weather prediction. The dominant approach to representing uncertainty in weather forecasting is to generate an ensemble…

The focus of nowcasting development is transitioning from physically motivated advection methods to purely data-driven Machine Learning (ML) approaches. Nevertheless, recent work indicates that incorporating advection into the ML value…

Generative modeling of discrete data underlies important applications spanning text-based agents like ChatGPT to the design of the very building blocks of life in protein sequences. However, application domains need to exert control over…

Flood prediction is critical for emergency planning and response to mitigate human and economic losses. Traditional physics-based hydrodynamic models generate high-resolution flood maps using numerical methods requiring fine-grid…

A diffusion probabilistic model (DPM), which constructs a forward diffusion process by gradually adding noise to data points and learns the reverse denoising process to generate new samples, has been shown to handle complex data…

Precipitation forecasts are less accurate compared to other meteorological fields because several key processes affecting precipitation distribution and intensity occur below the resolved scale of global weather prediction models. This…

Accurate precipitation estimates at individual locations are crucial for weather forecasting and spatial analysis. This study presents a paradigm shift by leveraging Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to surpass traditional methods like Kriging…

This paper presents an algorithm that relies on a series of dense and deep neural networks for passive microwave retrieval of precipitation. The neural networks learn from coincidences of brightness temperatures from the Global…

Climate models are essential to understand and project climate change, yet long-standing biases and uncertainties in their projections remain. This is largely associated with the representation of subgrid-scale processes, particularly…

To facilitate effective decision-making, precipitation datasets should include uncertainty estimates. Quantile regression with machine learning has been proposed for issuing such estimates. Distributional regression offers distinct…

Radars are widely used to obtain echo information for effective prediction, such as precipitation nowcasting. In this paper, recent relevant scientific investigation and practical efforts using Deep Learning (DL) models for weather radar…

Reliable precipitation nowcasting is critical for weather-sensitive decision-making, yet neural weather models (NWMs) can produce poorly calibrated probabilistic forecasts. Standard calibration metrics such as the expected calibration error…

Hail nowcasting is a considerable contributor to meteorological disasters and there is a great need to mitigate its socioeconomic effects through precise forecast that has high resolution, long lead times and local details with large…

An ensemble post-processing method is developed to improve the probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation events across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines a 3-D Vision Transformer (ViT) for bias correction…

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), is widely used in precipitation forecasting, based on complex equations of atmospheric motion requires supercomputers to infer the state of the atmosphere. Due to the complexity of the task and the huge…

The representation of nonlinear sub-grid processes, especially clouds, has been a major source of uncertainty in climate models for decades. Cloud-resolving models better represent many of these processes and can now be run globally but…

Weather forecasting centers currently rely on statistical postprocessing methods to minimize forecast error. This improves skill but can lead to predictions that violate physical principles or disregard dependencies between variables, which…

Cloud cover plays a critical role in weather prediction and impacts several sectors, including agriculture, solar power generation, and aviation. Despite advancements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, forecasting total cloud…

This paper presents a solution to the Weather4Cast 2023 competition, where the goal is to forecast high-resolution precipitation with an 8-hour lead time using lower-resolution satellite radiance images. We propose a simple, yet effective…