相关论文: Expected value of sample information calculations …

We develop a decision making framework to cast the problem of learning a ranking policy for search or recommendation engines in a two-sided e-commerce marketplace as an expected reward optimization problem using observational data. As a…

Quality statistical inference requires a sufficient amount of data, which can be missing or hard to obtain. To this end, prediction-powered inference has risen as a promising methodology, but existing approaches are largely limited to…

We investigate the performance and sampling variability of estimated forecast combinations, with particular attention given to the combination of forecast distributions. Unknown parameters in the forecast combination are optimized according…

This paper offers a commentary on the use of notions of statistical significance in choice modelling. We review the reasons for uncertainty in parameter estimates, provide a precise discussion on the computation of measures of uncertainty…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

We give improved constants for data dependent and variance sensitive confidence bounds, called empirical Bernstein bounds, and extend these inequalities to hold uniformly over classes of functionswhose growth function is polynomial in the…

Few Bayesian methods for analyzing high-dimensional sparse survival data provide scalable variable selection, effect estimation and uncertainty quantification. Such methods often either sacrifice uncertainty quantification by computing…

We propose an $\ell_1$-penalized estimator for high-dimensional models of Expected Shortfall (ES). The estimator is obtained as the solution to a least-squares problem for an auxiliary dependent variable, which is defined as a…

In many settings, robust data analysis involves computational methods for uncertainty quantification and statistical inference. To design frequentist studies that leverage robust analysis methods, suitable sample sizes to achieve desired…

Feature-importance methods show promise in transforming machine learning models from predictive engines into tools for scientific discovery. However, due to data sampling and algorithmic stochasticity, expressive models can be unstable,…

Mixed outcome endpoints that combine multiple continuous and discrete components to form co-primary, multiple primary or composite endpoints are often employed as primary outcome measures in clinical trials. There are many advantages to…

In this paper we develop a very efficient approach to the Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) that measures the average benefit of knowing the value of a subset of uncertain parameters…

Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the "small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered in multiple applications, such as precision medicine, where obtaining additional samples can…

Statistical estimates from survey samples have traditionally been obtained via design-based estimators. In many cases, these estimators tend to work well for quantities such as population totals or means, but can fall short as sample sizes…

How much more will we learn about single-field inflationary models in the future? We address this question in the context of Bayesian design and information theory. We develop a novel method to compute the expected utility of deciding…

Simulation offers a simple and flexible way to estimate the power of a clinical trial when analytic formulae are not available. The computational burden of using simulation has, however, restricted its application to only the simplest of…

Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called…

State-of-the-art machine learning models require access to significant amount of annotated data in order to achieve the desired level of performance. While unlabelled data can be largely available and even abundant, annotation process can…

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) datasets are frequently plagued by significant data gaps, leading to inconsistencies in ESG ratings due to varying imputation methods. This paper explores the application of established machine…

We study the excess minimum risk in statistical inference, defined as the difference between the minimum expected loss in estimating a random variable from an observed feature vector and the minimum expected loss in estimating the same…