相关论文: Multiscale Multi-Type Spatial Bayesian Analysis fo…

Intense wildfires impact nature, humans, and society, causing catastrophic damage to property and the ecosystem, as well as the loss of life. Forecasting wildfire front propagation is essential in order to support fire fighting efforts and…

Climate change is intensifying wildfire risks globally, making reliable forecasting critical for adaptation strategies. While machine learning shows promise for wildfire prediction from Earth observation data, current approaches lack…

We introduce a dependent Bayesian nonparametric model for the probabilistic modeling of membership of subgroups in a community based on partially replicated data. The focus here is on species-by-site data, i.e. community data where…

Spatial generalized linear mixed-effects models are popularly used to analyze spatially indexed univariate responses. However, with modern technology, it is common to observe vector-valued mixed-type responses, e.g., a combination of…

With climate change expected to exacerbate fire weather conditions, the accurate anticipation of wildfires on a global scale becomes increasingly crucial for disaster mitigation. In this study, we utilize SeasFire, a comprehensive global…

Wildfires pose a severe threat to the ecosystem and economy, and risk assessment is typically based on fire danger indices such as the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) used in Australia. Studying the joint tail dependence structure…

In 2023, Sicily faced an escalating issue of uncontrolled fires, necessitating a thorough investigation into their spatio-temporal dynamics. Our study addresses this concern through point process theory. Each wildfire is treated as a unique…

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time…

Building fires pose a persistent threat to life, property, and infrastructure, emphasizing the need for advanced risk mitigation strategies. This study presents a data-driven framework analyzing U.S. fire risks by integrating over one…

Wildfires increasingly threaten human life, ecosystems, and infrastructure, with events like the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles County underscoring the urgent need for more advanced prediction frameworks. Existing…

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

Facebook Disaster Maps (FBDM) is the first platform providing analysis-ready population change products derived from crowdsourced data targeting disaster relief practices. We evaluate the representativeness of FBDM data using the…

Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present `Next Day Wildfire Spread,' a curated, large-scale, multivariate data set of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of…

Over 8,024 wildfire incidents have been documented in 2024 alone, affecting thousands of fatalities and significant damage to infrastructure and ecosystems. Wildfires in the United States have inflicted devastating losses. Wildfires are…

Research has shown that climate change creates warmer temperatures and drier conditions, leading to longer wildfire seasons and increased wildfire risks in the United States. These factors have in turn led to increases in the frequency,…

Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes (MJPs) where available observations relate to either system states or jumps typically relies on data-augmentation Markov Chain Monte Carlo. State-of-the-art developments involve representing MJP…

Climate change is a major driver of biodiversity loss, changing the geographic range and abundance of many species. However, there remain significant knowledge gaps about the distribution of species, due principally to the amount of effort…

Investigating the health impacts of wildfire smoke requires data on people's exposure to fine particulate matter (PM$_{2.5}$) across space and time. In recent years, it has become common to use machine learning models to fill gaps in…

Wildfires pose an increasingly severe threat to air quality, yet quantifying their causal impact remains challenging due to unmeasured meteorological and geographic confounders. Moreover, wildfire impacts on air quality may exhibit…

Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output.…