相关论文: Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heurist…
Mathematical proof aims to deliver confident conclusions, but a very similar process of deduction can be used to make uncertain estimates that are open to revision. A key ingredient in such reasoning is the use of a "default" estimate of…
The Heuristic Ratio Estimation (HRE) approach proposes a new way of using the pairwise comparisons matrix. It allows the assumption that the weights of some alternatives (herein referred to as concepts) are known and fixed, hence the weight…
Heuristic algorithms are able to optimize objective functions efficiently because they use intelligently the information about the objective functions. Thus, information utilization is critical to the performance of heuristics. However, the…
We propose a new estimator for the high-dimensional linear regression model with observation error in the design where the number of coefficients is potentially larger than the sample size. The main novelty of our procedure is that the…
Deviating from conventional perspectives that frame artificial intelligence (AI) systems solely as logic emulators, we propose a novel program of heuristic reasoning. We distinguish between the 'instrumental' use of heuristics to match…
Heuristic Rating Estimation (HRE) is a newly proposed method supporting decisions analysis based on the use of pairwise comparisons. It allows that the ranking values of some alternatives (herein referred to as concepts) are initially…
In this paper, we propose a novel and generic family of multiple importance sampling estimators. We first revisit the celebrated balance heuristic estimator, a widely used Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable…
In various applications, computers are required to compute approximations to univariate elementary and special functions such as $\exp$ and $\arctan$ to modest accuracy. This paper proposes a new heuristic for automating the design of such…
Multiple importance sampling estimators are widely used for computing intractable constants due to its reliability and robustness. The celebrated balance heuristic estimator belongs to this class of methods and has proved very successful in…
A new formulation for the proportion of true null hypotheses $(\pi_0)$, based on the sum of all $p$-values and the average of expected $p$-value under the false null hypotheses has been proposed in the current work. This formulation of the…
Judgmental forecasting employs human opinions to make predictions about future events, rather than exclusively historical data as in quantitative forecasting. When these opinions form an argumentative structure around forecasts, it is…
Considering the increasing size of available data, the need for statistical methods that control the finite sample bias is growing. This is mainly due to the frequent settings where the number of variables is large and allowed to increase…
In decision-making methods, it is common to assume that the experts are honest and professional. However, this is not the case when one or more experts in the group decision making framework, such as the group analytic hierarchy process…
This paper considers an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations, when data are missing at random. The efficiency of existing estimators depends critically on correctly specifying the conditional…
GLR* is a recently developed robust version of the Generalized LR Parser, that can parse almost ANY input sentence by ignoring unrecognizable parts of the sentence. On a given input sentence, the parser returns a collection of parses that…
A key challenge in satisficing planning is to use multiple heuristics within one heuristic search. An aggregation of multiple heuristic estimates, for example by taking the maximum, has the disadvantage that bad estimates of a single…
Similes play an imperative role in creative writing such as story and dialogue generation. Proper evaluation metrics are like a beacon guiding the research of simile generation (SG). However, it remains under-explored as to what criteria…
The bias of an estimator is defined as the difference of its expected value from the parameter to be estimated, where the expectation is with respect to the model. Loosely speaking, small bias reflects the desire that if an experiment is…
While bibliometrics are widely used for research evaluation purposes, a common theoretical framework for conceptually understanding, empirically studying, and effectively teaching its usage is lacking. In this paper, we outline such a…
Heuristic approaches often do so well that they seem to pretty much always give the right answer. How close can heuristic algorithms get to always giving the right answer, without inducing seismic complexity-theoretic consequences? This…