相关论文: Data-Driven Modeling of Seasonal Dengue Dynamics i…
Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on environmental…
Bangladesh exhibits marked year-to-year variability in dengue, partly driven by meteorological fluctuations that shape \textit{Aedes} breeding-site persistence, mosquito development, and transmission. We exploit a contrast between Dhaka…
Dengue fever has been considered to be one of the global public health problems of the twenty-first century, especially in tropical and subtropical countries of the global south. The high morbidity and mortality rates of Dengue fever impose…
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…
Deterministic compartmental models are predominantly used in the modeling of infectious diseases, though stochastic models are considered more realistic, yet are complicated to estimate due to missing data. In this paper we present a novel…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted to humans by vectors of genus Aedes and is a global threat with health, social, and economic impact in many of the tropical countries including Sri Lanka. The virus transmission is significantly…
Dengue fever poses a persistent public health challenge in rapidly urbanizing Indian cities such as Ahmedabad, where spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variability complicate forecasting and control. In this study, we develop a data-driven…
Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…
We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease increasing dramatically over the past years due to improvement in human mobility. The movement of host individuals between and within the patches are captured via a residence-time matrix. A system of…
Drought poses a pervasive environmental challenge in Bangladesh, impacting agriculture, socio-economic stability, and food security due to its unique geographic and anthropogenic vulnerabilities. Traditional drought indices, such as the…
Reliable and timely dengue predictions provide actionable lead time for targeted vector control and clinical preparedness, reducing preventable diseases and health-system costs in at-risk communities. Dengue forecasting often relies on…
Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak…
Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…
We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, like dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed by two structures representing the human and mosquito…
We tackle limitations of ordinary differential equation-driven Susceptible-Infections-Removed (SIR) models and their extensions that have recently be employed for epidemic nowcasting and forecasting. In particular, we deal with challenges…
Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time…
Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health…
Variable Length Markov Chains with Exogenous Covariates (VLMCX) are stochastic models that use Generalized Linear Models to compute transition probabilities, taking into account both the state history and time-dependent exogenous…