相关论文: GARCH-Informed Neural Networks for Volatility Pred…

In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated…

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility…

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…

Several academics have studied the ability of hybrid models mixing univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models and neural networks to deliver better volatility predictions than purely econometric…

Recently artificial neural networks (ANNs) have seen success in volatility prediction, but the literature is divided on where an ANN should be used rather than the common GARCH model. The purpose of this study is to compare the volatility…

We propose a new approach to volatility modeling by combining deep learning (LSTM) and realized volatility measures. This LSTM-enhanced realized GARCH framework incorporates and distills modeling advances from financial econometrics, high…

Volatility is a quantity of measurement for the price movements of stocks or options which indicates the uncertainty within financial markets. As an indicator of the level of risk or the degree of variation, volatility is important to…

Volatility clustering and spillovers are key features of real-world financial time series when there are a lot of cross-sectional financial assets. While network analysis helps connect stocks that are 'similar' or 'correlated', which is…

In this study, we develop a unified volatility modeling framework that embeds GARCH dynamics directly within recurrent neural networks. We propose two interpretable hybrid architectures, GARCH-GRU and GARCH-LSTM, that integrate the…

This study addresses the computational challenges of forecasting volatility in high-dimensional commodity markets. Building on the Network log-ARCH framework, we introduce a novel class of network topologies from GARCH-informed correlation…

This study aims to compare multiple deep learning-based forecasters for the task of predicting volatility using multivariate data. The paper evaluates a range of models, starting from simpler and shallower ones and progressing to deeper and…

Volatility clustering is a crucial property that has a substantial impact on stock market patterns. Nonetheless, developing robust models for accurately predicting future stock price volatility is a difficult research topic. For predicting…

Volatility clustering is an important characteristic that has a significant effect on the behavior of stock markets. However, designing robust models for accurate prediction of future volatilities of stock prices is a very challenging…

This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…

In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…

This work is devoted to the study of modeling geophysical and financial time series. A class of volatility models with time-varying parameters is presented to forecast the volatility of time series in a stationary environment. The modeling…

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…

A spin model is used for simulations of financial markets. To determine return volatility in the spin financial market we use the GARCH model often used for volatility estimation in empirical finance. We apply the Bayesian inference…

Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of…

We introduce the concept of a Graph-Informed Neural Network (GINN), a hybrid approach combining deep learning with probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) that acts as a surrogate for physics-based representations of multiscale and…