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Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-03 Ezra Karger , Houtan Bastani , Chen Yueh-Han , Zachary Jacobs , Danny Halawi , Fred Zhang , Philip E. Tetlock

AI models are increasingly prevalent in high-stakes environments, necessitating thorough assessment of their capabilities and risks. Benchmarks are popular for measuring these attributes and for comparing model performance, tracking…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-11-21 Anka Reuel , Amelia Hardy , Chandler Smith , Max Lamparth , Malcolm Hardy , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Images from outdoor scenes may be taken under various weather conditions. It is well studied that weather impacts the performance of computer vision algorithms and needs to be handled properly. However, existing algorithms model weather…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-04-01 Qi Bi , Shaodi You , Theo Gevers

Robotic applications involving people often require advanced perception systems to better understand complex real-world scenarios. To address this challenge, photo-realistic and physics simulators are gaining popularity as a means of…

Despite the remarkable strides made by AI-driven models in modern precipitation forecasting, these black-box models cannot inherently deepen the comprehension of underlying mechanisms. To address this limitation, we propose an AI-driven…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-05-12 Hao Xu , Yuntian Chen , Zhenzhong Zeng , Nina Li , Jian Li , Dongxiao Zhang

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-12-06 Peter Grönquist , Tal Ben-Nun , Nikoli Dryden , Peter Dueben , Luca Lavarini , Shigang Li , Torsten Hoefler

Urban areas are not only one of the biggest contributors to climate change, but also they are one of the most vulnerable areas with high populations who would together experience the negative impacts. In this paper, we address some of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-13 Beril Sirmacek , Ricardo Vinuesa

Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have…

Prediction of dynamic environmental variables in unmonitored sites remains a long-standing challenge for water resources science. The majority of the world's freshwater resources have inadequate monitoring of critical environmental…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-29 Jared D. Willard , Charuleka Varadharajan , Xiaowei Jia , Vipin Kumar

Advances in deep learning methods for weather forecasting are creating opportunities to computationally explore the potential for steering or control of extreme weather trajectories for societal risk reduction. We present initial…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-04-22 Moyan Liu , Qin Huang , Upmanu Lall

Weather forecasting plays a crucial role in supporting strategic decisions across various sectors, including agriculture, renewable energy production, and disaster management. However, the inherently dynamic and chaotic behavior of the…

Decisions in agriculture are frequently based on weather. With an increase in the availability and affordability of off-the-shelf weather stations, farmers able to acquire localised weather information. However, with uncertainty in the…

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-24 Jonathan Schmidt , Luca Schmidt , Felix Strnad , Nicole Ludwig , Philipp Hennig

One of the guiding principles for designing AI-based weather forecasting systems is to embed physical constraints as inductive priors in the neural network architecture. A popular prior is locality, where the atmospheric data is processed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-04 Guillaume Couairon , Christian Lessig , Anastase Charantonis , Claire Monteleoni

Traditional Image Quality Assessment~(IQA) focuses on quantifying technical degradations such as noise, blur, or compression artifacts, using both full-reference and no-reference objective metrics. However, evaluation of rendering…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-01-15 Vsevolod Plohotnuk , Artyom Panshin , Nikola Banić , Simone Bianco , Michael Freeman , Egor Ershov

Data-driven science is an emerging paradigm where scientific discoveries depend on the execution of computational AI models against rich, discipline-specific datasets. With modern machine learning frameworks, anyone can develop and execute…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-08-09 Seth Ockerman , John Wu , Christopher Stewart

Forecasting global precipitation patterns and, in particular, extreme precipitation events is of critical importance to preparing for and adapting to climate change. Making accurate high-resolution precipitation forecasts using traditional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-25 James Duncan , Shashank Subramanian , Peter Harrington

Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-05 Busra Asan , Abdullah Akgül , Alper Unal , Melih Kandemir , Gozde Unal

Artificial intelligence (AI), based on deep-learning algorithm using high-quality reanalysis datasets, is showing enormous potential for weather forecasting. In this context, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-05-07 Zied Ben-Bouallegue , Mariana C A Clare , Matthieu Chevallier