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Probabilistic programming is a rapidly developing programming paradigm which enables the formulation of Bayesian models as programs and the automation of posterior inference. It facilitates the development of models and conducting Bayesian…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2025-10-31 Nathanael Nussbaumer , Markus Böck , Jürgen Cito

We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-11-23 Xinyu He , Warren B. Powell

Gaussian Processes (GPs), as a nonparametric learning method, offer flexible modeling capabilities and calibrated uncertainty quantification for function approximations. Additionally, GPs support online learning by efficiently incorporating…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-18 Zewen Yang , Dongfa Zhang , Xiaobing Dai , Fengyi Yu , Chi Zhang , Bingkun Huang , Hamid Sadeghian , Sami Haddadin

Despite rapid advances in continual learning, a large body of research is devoted to improving performance in the existing setups. While a handful of work do propose new continual learning setups, they still lack practicality in certain…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-03-22 Hyunseo Koh , Dahyun Kim , Jung-Woo Ha , Jonghyun Choi

This article addresses the challenge of adapting data-based models over time. We propose a novel two-fold modelling architecture designed to correct plant-model mismatch caused by two types of uncertainty. Out-of-domain uncertainty arises…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-07-17 Laura Boca de Giuli , Alessio La Bella , Riccardo Scattolini

Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-12-06 Rahul G. Krishnan , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

This paper studies the problem of online parameter estimation for cyber-physical systems with binary outputs that may be subject to adversarial data tampering. Existing methods are primarily offline and unsuitable for real-time learning. To…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-11-13 Jian Guo , Lihong Pei , Wenchao Xue , Yanlong Zhao , Ji-Feng Zhang

Online detection of instantaneous changes in the generative process of a data sequence generally focuses on retrospective inference of such change points without considering their future occurrences. We extend the Bayesian Online Change…

We propose an active learning method for discovering low-dimensional structure in high-dimensional Gaussian process (GP) tasks. Such problems are increasingly frequent and important, but have hitherto presented severe practical…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-10-28 Roman Garnett , Michael A. Osborne , Philipp Hennig

The widespread adoption of online randomized controlled experiments (A/B Tests) for decision-making has created ongoing capacity constraints which necessitate interim analyses. As a consequence, platform users are increasingly motivated to…

Bayesian learning is built on an assumption that the model space contains a true reflection of the data generating mechanism. This assumption is problematic, particularly in complex data environments. Here we present a Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-05 S. P. Lyddon , S. G. Walker , C. C. Holmes

A fundamental problem in control is to learn a model of a system from observations that is useful for controller synthesis. To provide good performance guarantees, existing methods must assume that the real system is in the class of models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-07-04 Stephane Ross , J. Andrew Bagnell

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-10-14 Ramis Khabibullin , Sergei Seleznev

Extracting the underlying low-dimensional space where high-dimensional signals often reside has long been at the center of numerous algorithms in the signal processing and machine learning literature during the past few decades. At the same…

Batch offline data have been shown considerably beneficial for reinforcement learning. Their benefit is further amplified by upsampling with generative models. In this paper, we consider a novel opportunity where interaction with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-04 Shangzhe Li , Xinhua Zhang

Estimating the parameters of mathematical models is a common problem in almost all branches of science. However, this problem can prove notably difficult when processes and model descriptions become increasingly complex and an explicit…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-09 Stefan T. Radev , Ulf K. Mertens , Andreas Voss , Lynton Ardizzone , Ullrich Köthe

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) is crucial for real-world applications where exploration can be costly or unsafe. However, offline learned policies are often suboptimal, and further online fine-tuning is required. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-03 Hao Hu , Yiqin Yang , Jianing Ye , Chengjie Wu , Ziqing Mai , Yujing Hu , Tangjie Lv , Changjie Fan , Qianchuan Zhao , Chongjie Zhang

Online field experiments are the gold-standard way of evaluating changes to real-world interactive machine learning systems. Yet our ability to explore complex, multi-dimensional policy spaces - such as those found in recommendation and…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-04-30 Benjamin Letham , Eytan Bakshy

Despite much research targeted at enabling conventional machine learning models to continually learn tasks and data distributions sequentially without forgetting the knowledge acquired, little effort has been devoted to account for more…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-11 Sandra Servia-Rodriguez , Cecilia Mascolo , Young D. Kwon

Gaussian Processes (GPs) can be used as flexible, non-parametric function priors. Inspired by the growing body of work on Normalizing Flows, we enlarge this class of priors through a parametric invertible transformation that can be made…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-26 Juan Maroñas , Oliver Hamelijnck , Jeremias Knoblauch , Theodoros Damoulas