相关论文: K-Fold Causal BART for CATE Estimation

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not…

Estimating treatment effects (TE) from observational data is a critical yet complex task in many fields, from healthcare and economics to public policy. While recent advances in machine learning and causal inference have produced powerful…

Decision-making across various fields, such as medicine, heavily relies on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Practitioners commonly make decisions by checking whether the estimated CATE is positive, even though the…

The study of dependence between random variables under external influences is a challenging problem in multivariate analysis. We address this by proposing a novel semi-parametric approach for conditional copula models using Bayesian…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) of Chipman et al. (2010) has proven to be a powerful tool for nonparametric modeling and prediction. Monotone BART (Chipman et al., 2022) is a recent development that allows BART to be more precise…

Motivated by the remarkable success of Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) in regression modelling, we propose a novel nonparametric Bayesian method, termed Functional BART (FBART), tailored specifically for function-on-scalar…

There is interest in learning about the causal effect of family planning (FP) on empowerment related outcomes. Experimental data related to this question are available from trials in which FP programs increase access to FP. While program…

Standard causal inference characterizes treatment effect through averages, but the counterfactual distributions could be different in not only the central tendency but also spread and shape. To provide a comprehensive evaluation of…

We present a Bayesian approach to model cohort-level retention rates and revenue over time. We use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the retention component which we couple with a linear model for the revenue component.…

Many problems ask a question that can be formulated as a causal question: "what would have happened if...?" For example, "would the person have had surgery if he or she had been Black?" To address this kind of questions, calculating an…

State-level policy studies often conduct heterogeneity analyses that quantify how treatment effects vary across state characteristics. These analyses may be used to inform state-specific policy decisions, or to infer how the effect of a…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a fully Bayesian approach to modeling with ensembles of trees. BART can uncover complex regression functions with high dimensional regressors in a fairly automatic way and provide Bayesian…

We recently developed a new method riAFT-BART to draw causal inferences about population treatment effect on patient survival from clustered and censored survival data while accounting for the multilevel data structure. The practical…

Accurate estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is at the core of personalized decision making. While there is a plethora of models for CATE estimation, model selection is a nontrivial task, due to the fundamental…

We consider the problem of partial identification, the estimation of bounds on the treatment effects from observational data. Although studied using discrete treatment variables or in specific causal graphs (e.g., instrumental variables),…

This paper develops a sparsity-inducing version of Bayesian Causal Forests, a recently proposed nonparametric causal regression model that employs Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and is specifically designed to estimate heterogeneous…

When estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, missing outcome data can complicate treatment effect estimation, causing certain subgroups of the population to be poorly represented. In this work, we discuss this commonly overlooked…

Bayes additive regression trees(BART) is a nonparametric regression model which has gained wide-spread popularity in recent years due to its flexibility and high accuracy of estimation. Soft BART,one variation of BART,improves both…

In this paper we develop the randomized Sharded Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (SBT) model. We introduce a randomization auxiliary variable and a sharding tree to decide partitioning of data, and fit each partition component to a…

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little…