相关论文: SEF: A Method for Computing Prediction Intervals b…

A fundamental limitation of traditional Neural Networks (NN) in predictive modelling is their inability to quantify uncertainty in their outputs. In critical applications like positioning systems, understanding the reliability of…

Neural network potentials (NNPs) combine the computational efficiency of classical interatomic potentials with the high accuracy and flexibility of the ab initio methods used to create the training set, but can also result in unphysical…

Modern deep neural networks achieved remarkable progress in medical image segmentation tasks. However, it has recently been observed that they tend to produce overconfident estimates, even in situations of high uncertainty, leading to…

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

One of the most common problems preventing the application of prediction models in the real world is lack of generalization: The accuracy of models, measured in the benchmark does repeat itself on future data, e.g. in the settings of real…

Modern simulation-based inference techniques use neural networks to solve inverse problems efficiently. One notable strategy is neural posterior estimation (NPE), wherein a neural network parameterizes a distribution to approximate the…

Neural networks are often overconfident about their predictions, which undermines their reliability and trustworthiness. In this work, we present a novel technique, named Error-Driven Uncertainty Aware Training (EUAT), which aims to enhance…

Constructing prediction sets with coverage guarantees for unobserved outcomes is a core problem in modern statistics. Methods for predictive inference have been developed for a wide range of settings, but usually only consider test data…

Rigorous error estimation is a fundamental topic in numerical analysis. With the increasing use of physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for solving partial differential equations, several approaches have been developed to quantify the…

The neural network (NN)-based direct uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have achieved the state of the art performance since the first inauguration, known as the lower-upper-bound estimation (LUBE) method. However, currently-available…

The success of deep learning has inspired recent interests in applying neural networks in statistical inference. In this paper, we investigate the use of deep neural networks for nonparametric regression with measurement errors. We propose…

Normal estimation for unstructured point clouds is an important task in 3D computer vision. Current methods achieve encouraging results by mapping local patches to normal vectors or learning local surface fitting using neural networks.…

We present a novel approach for training deep neural networks in a Bayesian way. Classical, i.e. non-Bayesian, deep learning has two major drawbacks both originating from the fact that network parameters are considered to be deterministic.…

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have been widely used to obtain solutions to various physical phenomena modeled as Differential Equations. As PINNs are not naturally equipped with mechanisms for Uncertainty Quantification, some…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating statistics to infer parameters of intractable likelihood models.…

Traditional neural networks are simple to train but they typically produce overconfident predictions. In contrast, Bayesian neural networks provide good uncertainty quantification but optimizing them is time consuming due to the large…

Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but…

Uncertainty quantification in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based predictions of material properties is of immense importance for the success and reliability of AI applications in material science. While confidence intervals are commonly…

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Despite the superiority of convolutional neural networks demonstrated in time series modeling and forecasting, it has not been fully explored on the design of the neural network architecture and the tuning of the hyper-parameters. Inspired…