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Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, potentially leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-02 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

We propose a method for defining, identifying, and estimating the marginal treatment effect (MTE) without imposing the instrumental variable (IV) assumptions of independence, exclusion, and separability (or monotonicity). Under a new…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-03-02 Zhewen Pan , Zhengxin Wang , Junsen Zhang , Yahong Zhou

Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-17 Xiaoqing Tan , Chung-Chou H. Chang , Ling Zhou , Lu Tang

Recent studies have proposed causal machine learning (CML) methods to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). In this study, I investigate whether CML methods add value compared to conventional CATE estimators by…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-12-07 Anthony Strittmatter

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-25 Connor T. Jerzak , Ritwik Vashistha , Adel Daoud

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

There are many measures to report so-called treatment or causal effects: absolute difference, ratio, odds ratio, number needed to treat, and so on. The choice of a measure, e.g. absolute versus relative, is often debated because it leads to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Bénédicte Colnet , Julie Josse , Gaël Varoquaux , Erwan Scornet

Multi-regional clinical trials (MRCTs) are central to global drug development, enabling evaluation of treatment effects across diverse populations. A key challenge is valid and efficient inference for a region-specific estimand when the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-04 Chenxi Li , Ke Zhu , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

Contextual sensing and delivery of digital interventions to improve health outcomes have gained significant traction in behavioral and psychiatric studies. Micro-randomized trials (MRTs) are a common experimental design for obtaining…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-01 Jieru Shi , Zhenke Wu , Walter Dempsey

A common problem in machine learning is determining if a variable significantly contributes to a model's prediction performance. This problem is aggravated for datasets, such as gene expression datasets, that suffer the worst case of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-13 Yue Wu , Ted Spaide , Kenji Nakamichi , Russell Van Gelder , Aaron Lee

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-01-16 Sukjin Han

Randomized trials are typically designed to detect average treatment effects but often lack the statistical power to uncover individual-level treatment effect heterogeneity, limiting their value for personalized decision-making. To address…

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

Understanding and inferencing Heterogeneous Treatment Effects (HTE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) are vital for developing personalized treatment recommendations. Many state-of-the-art approaches achieve inspiring…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-28 Chan Hsu , Jun-Ting Wu , Yihuang Kang

This paper studies treatment effect models in which individuals are classified into unobserved groups based on heterogeneous treatment rules. Using a finite mixture approach, we propose a marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework in which…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-05-24 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

Accurate estimation of treatment effects is essential for decision-making across various scientific fields. This task, however, becomes challenging in areas like social sciences and online marketplaces, where treating one experimental unit…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-04 Mohsen Bayati , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Sadegh Shirani , Ruoxuan Xiong

This study proposes an end-to-end algorithm for policy learning in causal inference. We observe data consisting of covariates, treatment assignments, and outcomes, where only the outcome corresponding to the assigned treatment is observed.…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-30 Masahiro Kato

In many scientific experiments, the data annotating cost constraints the pace for testing novel hypotheses. Yet, modern machine learning pipelines offer a promising solution, provided their predictions yield correct conclusions. We focus on…