相关论文: Statistical Models for Outbreak Detection of Measl…
Measles is considered as a highly contagious disease that leads to serious complications around the world. Thus, the paper determined the trend and the five-year forecasted data of the Measles in the Philippines. This study utilized the…
Objectives: Our research adopts computational techniques to analyze disease outbreaks weekly over a large geographic area while maintaining local-level analysis by incorporating relevant high-spatial resolution cultural and environmental…
Measles is an infectious disease caused by the Morbilivirus Measles Virus which has accompanied the human race since the 4th millennium BC, it is a disease usually concerning the paediatric population and in the past, before the advent of…
The study was conducted to develop an appropriate model that could predict the weekly reported Malaria incidence in the Philippines using the Box-Jenkins method.The data were retrieved from the Department of Health(DOH) website in the…
Prediction of the progression of an infectious disease outbreak is important for planning and coordinating a response. Differential equations are often used to model an epidemic outbreak's behaviour but are challenging to parameterise.…
During an infectious disease outbreak, biases in the data and complexities of the underlying dynamics pose significant challenges in mathematically modelling the outbreak and designing policy. Motivated by the ongoing response to COVID-19,…
Super-spreading events for infectious diseases occur when some infected individuals infect more than the average number of secondary cases. Several super-spreading individuals have been identified for the 2003 outbreak of severe acute…
Due to the rapid geographic spread of the Aedes mosquito and the increase in dengue incidence, dengue fever has been an increasing concern for public health authorities in tropical and subtropical countries worldwide. Significant challenges…
Health is a very important prerequisite in peoples well-being and happiness. Several studies were more focused on presenting the occurrence on specific disease like forecasting the number of dengue and malaria cases. This paper utilized the…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
Measles presents a unique and imminent challenge for epidemiologists and public health officials: the disease is highly contagious, yet vaccination rates are declining precipitously in many localities. Consequently, the risk of a measles…
Dengue incidence forecasting using hybrid models has been surging in the data rich world. Hybridization of statistical time series forecasting models and machine learning models are explored for dengue forecasting with different degrees of…
The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of…
Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…
Stochastic epidemic models can estimate infection and removal rates, and derived quantities such as the basic reproductive number ($R_0$), when both infection and removal times are observed. In practice, however, removal times are often…
We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by…
Malaria transmission in Madagascar is highly heterogeneous, exhibiting spatial, seasonal and long-term trends. Previous efforts to map malaria risk in Madagascar used prevalence data from Malaria Indicator Surveys. These cross-sectional…
Insect outbreaks are biotic disturbances in forests and agroecosystems that cause economic and ecological damage. This phenomenon depends on a variety of biological and physical factors. The complexity and practical importance of the issue…
As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence…
\textbf{Background} Measles has resurged globally in the post-pandemic period as routine immunisation recovery remains below the two-dose threshold required to interrupt transmission. Bangladesh, previously nearing measles--rubella…