相关论文: Theory and inference for multivariate autoregressi…

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…

This paper presents a framework for binary autoregressive time series in which each observation is a Bernoulli variable whose success probability evolves with past outcomes and probabilities, in the spirit of GARCH-type dynamics,…

A class of multivariate periodic autoregressive models is proposed where coupling between time series is achieved through linear mean functions. Various response distributions with quadratic mean-variance relationships fit into the…

Joint species distribution models are popular in ecology for modeling covariate effects on species occurrence, while characterizing cross-species dependence. Data consist of multivariate binary indicators of the occurrences of different…

Real-world data often exhibits sequential dependence, across diverse domains such as human behavior, medicine, finance, and climate modeling. Probabilistic methods capture the inherent uncertainty associated with prediction in these…

We discuss existence and uniqueness of stationary and ergodic nonlinear autoregressive processes when exogenous regressors are incorporated in the dynamic. To this end, we consider the convergence of the backward iterations of dependent…

The space time autoregressive model has been widely applied in science, in areas such as economics, public finance, political science, agricultural economics, environmental studies and transportation analyses. The classical space time…

Latent autoregressive processes are a popular choice to model time varying parameters. These models can be formulated as nonlinear state space models for which inference is not straightforward due to the high number of parameters. Therefore…

Latent autoregressive models are useful time series models for the analysis of infectious disease data. Evaluation of the likelihood function of latent autoregressive models is intractable and its approximation through simulation-based…

This work addresses the problem of missing data in time-series analysis focusing on (a) estimation of model parameters in the presence of missing data and (b) reconstruction of missing data. Standard approaches used to solve these problems…

Motivated by the dynamic modeling of relative abundance data in ecology, we introduce a general approach to model stationary Markovian or non Markovian time series on (relatively) compact spaces such as a hypercube, the simplex or a sphere…

This paper provides a general identification approach for a wide range of nonlinear panel data models, including binary choice, ordered response, and other types of limited dependent variable models. Our approach accommodates dynamic models…

Presence-only data, point locations where a species has been recorded as being present, are often used in modeling the distribution of a species as a function of a set of explanatory variables---whether to map species occurrence, to…

It has become increasingly common to collect high-dimensional binary response data; for example, with the emergence of new sampling techniques in ecology. In smaller dimensions, multivariate probit (MVP) models are routinely used for…

We present a structured additive regression approach to model conditional densities given scalar covariates, where only samples of the conditional distributions are observed. This links our approach to distributional regression models for…

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

Missing covariates are not uncommon in capture-recapture studies. When covariate information is missing at random in capture-recapture data, an empirical full likelihood method has been demonstrated to outperform…

The dynamics of biological systems, from proteins to cells to organisms, is complex and stochastic. To decipher their physical laws, we need to bridge between experimental observations and theoretical modeling. Thanks to progress in…