相关论文: Rediscovering Bottom-Up: Effective Forecasting in …

Model selection has been proven an effective strategy for improving accuracy in time series forecasting applications. However, when dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from selecting the most appropriate forecasting model,…

Optimal decision-making compels us to anticipate the future at different horizons. However, in many domains connecting together predictions from multiple time horizons and abstractions levels across their organization becomes all the more…

In recent works by Yang et al. (2017a,b), and Yagli et al. (2019), geographical, temporal, and sequential deterministic reconciliation of hierarchical photovoltaic (PV) power generation have been considered for a simulated PV dataset in…

Combining forecast from different models has shown to perform better than single forecast in most time series. To improve the quality of forecast we can go for combining forecast. We study the effect of decomposing a series into multiple…

Hierarchical time series forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making in various domains while presenting significant challenges for modelling as they involve multiple levels of aggregation, constraints, and availability of…

Aggregated curves are common structures in economics and finance, and the most prominent examples are supply and demand curves. In this study, we exploit the fact that all aggregated curves have an intrinsic hierarchical structure, and thus…

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention, leading to the de-velopment of a wide range of approaches, from traditional statistical meth-ods to advanced deep learning models. Among them, the Auto-Regressive Integrated…

This paper discusses the prediction of hierarchical time series, where each upper-level time series is calculated by summing appropriate lower-level time series. Forecasts for such hierarchical time series should be coherent, meaning that…

We introduce a dynamic approach to probabilistic forecast reconciliation at scale. Our model differs from the existing literature in this area in several important ways. Firstly we explicitly allow the weights allocated to the base…

In a recent paper, while elucidating the links between forecast combination and cross-sectional forecast reconciliation, Hollyman et al. (2021) have proposed a forecast combination-based approach to the reconciliation of a simple hierarchy.…

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts…

Time series forecasts of different temporal granularity are widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales prediction in days and weeks for making different inventory plans. However, these tasks are usually solved separately without…

Reconciliation enforces coherence between hierarchical forecasts, in order to satisfy a set of linear constraints. While most works focus on the reconciliation of the point forecasts, we consider probabilistic reconciliation and we analyze…

Platform businesses operate on a digital core and their decision making requires high-dimensional accurate forecast streams at different levels of cross-sectional (e.g., geographical regions) and temporal aggregation (e.g., minutes to…

Data scarcity and discontinuity are common occurrences in the healthcare and epidemiological dataset and often need help in forming an educative decision and forecasting the upcoming scenario. Often, these data are stored as monthly/yearly…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS)…

An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…

Many applications in different domains produce large amount of time series data. Making accurate forecasting is critical for many decision makers. Various time series forecasting methods exist which use linear and nonlinear models…

This paper addresses a common problem with hierarchical time series. Time series analysis demands the series for a model to be the sum of multiple series at corresponding sub-levels. Hierarchical Time Series presents a two-fold problem.…