相关论文: inlabru: software for fitting latent Gaussian mode…

The goal of phylodynamics, an area on the intersection of phylogenetics and population genetics, is to reconstruct population size dynamics from genetic data. Recently, a series of nonparametric Bayesian methods have been proposed for such…

To account for measurement error (ME) in explanatory variables, Bayesian approaches provide a flexible framework, as expert knowledge about unobserved covariates can be incorporated in the prior distributions. However, given the analytic…

We address in this paper a new approach for fitting spatiotemporal models with application in disease mapping using the interaction types 1,2,3, and 4. When we account for the spatiotemporal interactions in disease-mapping models, inference…

Bayesian structural equation modelling (BSEM) offers many advantages such as principled uncertainty quantification, small-sample regularisation, and flexible model specification. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods on which…

The linearized-Laplace approximation (LLA) has been shown to be effective and efficient in constructing Bayesian neural networks. It is theoretically compelling since it can be seen as a Gaussian process posterior with the mean function…

Coming up with Bayesian models for spatial data is easy, but performing inference with them can be challenging. Writing fast inference code for a complex spatial model with realistically-sized datasets from scratch is time-consuming, and if…

Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state…

Laplace approximation (LA) and its linearized variant (LLA) enable effortless adaptation of pretrained deep neural networks to Bayesian neural networks. The generalized Gauss-Newton (GGN) approximation is typically introduced to improve…

Current implementations of multiresolution methods are limited in terms of possible types of responses and approaches to inference. We provide a multiresolution approach for spatial analysis of non-Gaussian responses using latent Gaussian…

Measurement error and missing data in variables used in statistical models are common, and can at worst lead to serious biases in analyses if they are ignored. Yet, these problems are often not dealt with adequately, presumably in part…

The ETAS models are currently the most popular in the field of earthquake forecasting. The MCMC method is time-consuming and limited by parameter correlation while bringing parameter uncertainty. The INLA-based method "inlabru" solves these…

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often produce overconfident out-of-distribution predictions, motivating Bayesian uncertainty quantification. The Linearized Laplace Approximation (LLA) achieves this by linearizing the DNN and applying Laplace…

This paper introduces a Laplace approximation to Bayesian inference in Dirichlet regression models, which can be used to analyze a set of variables on a simplex exhibiting skewness and heteroscedasticity, without having to transform the…

Regression models for circular variables are less developed, since the concept of building a linear predictor from linear combinations of covariates and various random effects, breaks the circular nature of the variable. In this paper, we…

Approximate Bayesian inference typically revolves around computing the posterior parameter distribution. In practice, however, the main object of interest is often a model's predictions rather than its parameters. In this work, we propose…

Cure models in survival analysis deal with populations in which a part of the individuals cannot experience the event of interest. Mixture cure models consider the target population as a mixture of susceptible and non-susceptible…

Background: We aimed to design a Bayesian adaption trial through extensive simulations to determine values for key design parameters, demonstrate error rates, and establish the expected sample size. The complexity of the proposed outcome…

Modern methods for quantifying and predicting species distribution play a crucial part in biodiversity conservation. Occupancy models are a popular choice for analyzing species occurrence data as they allow to separate the observational…

Spatio-temporal Bayesian inference drives environmental and health sciences using latent Gaussian models. Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) enable inference for these models at HPC scale but rely on derivative-based…