相关论文: Enhancing reliability in prediction intervals usin…

We develop a method to generate prediction intervals that have a user-specified coverage level across all regions of feature-space, a property called conditional coverage. A typical approach to this task is to estimate the conditional…

Many real-life applications involve simultaneously forecasting multiple time series that are hierarchically related via aggregation or disaggregation operations. For instance, commercial organizations often want to forecast inventories…

Future trajectories play an important role across domains such as autonomous driving, hurricane forecasting, and epidemic modeling, where practitioners commonly generate ensemble paths by sampling probabilistic models or leveraging multiple…

Long range forecasts are the starting point of many decision support systems that need to draw inference from high-level aggregate patterns on forecasted values. State of the art time-series forecasting methods are either subject to concept…

Drawing statistical inferences from large datasets in a model-robust way is an important problem in statistics and data science. In this paper, we propose methods that are robust to large and unequal noise in different observational units…

Multivariate linear regression models often face the problem of heteroscedasticity caused by multiple explanatory variables. The weighted least squares estimation with univariate-dependent weights has limitations in constructing weight…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is of critical importance in time series forecasting, yet traditional methods often rely on restrictive distributional assumptions. Conformal prediction (CP) has emerged as a promising distribution-free…

Prediction sets provide a means of quantifying the uncertainty in predictive tasks. Using held out calibration data, conformal prediction and risk control can produce prediction sets that exhibit statistically valid error control in a…

Hyperdimensional Computing (HDC) offers a computationally efficient paradigm for neuromorphic learning. Yet, it lacks rigorous uncertainty quantification, leading to open decision boundaries and, consequently, vulnerability to outliers,…

We study the generation of prediction intervals in regression for uncertainty quantification. This task can be formalized as an empirical constrained optimization problem that minimizes the average interval width while maintaining the…

Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential in survival prediction, particularly in clinical settings where erroneous decisions carry high risk. Conformal prediction has attracted substantial attention as it offers a model-agnostic…

This paper introduces Conformal Thresholded Intervals (CTI), a novel conformal regression method that aims to produce the smallest possible prediction set with guaranteed coverage. Unlike existing methods that rely on nested conformal…

Standard conformal prediction methods guarantee marginal coverage but often produce inefficient intervals that fail to adapt to local heteroscedasticity, while recent localized approaches often struggle to maintain validity across distinct…

Reliable probabilistic production forecasts are required to better manage the uncertainty that the rapid build-out of wind power capacity adds to future energy systems. In this article, we consider sequential methods to correct errors in…

Existing conformal prediction algorithms estimate prediction intervals at target confidence levels to characterize the performance of a regression model on new test samples. However, considering an autonomous system consisting of multiple…

Conformal inference is a statistical method used to construct prediction sets for point predictors, providing reliable uncertainty quantification with probability guarantees. This method utilizes historical labeled data to estimate the…

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Quantifying the data uncertainty in learning tasks is often done by learning a prediction interval or prediction set of the label given the input. Two commonly desired properties for learned prediction sets are \emph{valid coverage} and…

Predictive models are often required to produce reliable predictions under statistical conditions that are not matched to the training data. A common type of training-testing mismatch is covariate shift, where the conditional distribution…

We develop a general framework for constructing distribution-free prediction intervals for time series. Theoretically, we establish explicit bounds on conditional and marginal coverage gaps of estimated prediction intervals, which…