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The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-06-05 Paulo Orenstein

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-07-28 Marta Tallarita , Maria De Iorio , Alessandra Guglielmi , James Malone-Lee

Bayesian model-based spatial clustering methods are widely used for their flexibility in estimating latent clusters with an unknown number of clusters while accounting for spatial proximity. Many existing methods are designed for clustering…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-13 Kun Huang , Huiyan Sang

Background: Mendelian randomization (MR) is a useful approach to causal inference from observational studies when randomised controlled trials are not feasible. However, study heterogeneity of two association studies required in MR is often…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-16 Linyi Zou , Hui Guo , Carlo Berzuini

Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2023-05-31 Sei Zhen Khong , Lanlan Su

Bayesian estimation is a vital tool in robotics as it allows systems to update the robot state belief using incomplete information from noisy sensors. To render the state estimation problem tractable, many systems assume that the motion and…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-01-13 Miguel Saavedra-Ruiz , Steven A. Parkison , Ria Arora , James Richard Forbes , Liam Paull

Bayesian variable selection requires sampling from a posterior distribution that combines discrete model indicators with continuously varying parameters, a challenge often addressed through reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC).…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-01 Don van den Bergh , Merlise A. Clyde , Adrian E. Raftery , Maarten Marsman

Joint models (JM) for longitudinal and survival data have gained increasing interest and found applications in a wide range of clinical and biomedical settings. These models facilitate the understanding of the relationship between outcomes…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-25 Sida Chen , Danilo Alvares , Christopher Jackson , Jessica Barrett

Posterior contractions rates (PCRs) strengthen the notion of Bayesian consistency, quantifying the speed at which the posterior distribution concentrates on arbitrarily small neighborhoods of the true model, with probability tending to 1 or…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-01-31 Federico Camerlenghi , Emanuele Dolera , Stefano Favaro , Edoardo Mainini

The problem of adaptive sampling for estimating probability mass functions (pmf) uniformly well is considered. Performance of the sampling strategy is measured in terms of the worst-case mean squared error. A Bayesian variant of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-09 Dhruva Kartik , Neeraj Sood , Urbashi Mitra , Tara Javidi

We consider the problem of Bayesian estimation of static parameters associated to a partially and discretely observed diffusion process. We assume that the exact transition dynamics of the diffusion process are unavailable, even up-to an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-09-26 Pierre Del Moral , Shulan Hu , Ajay Jasra , Hamza Ruzayqat , Xinyu Wang

We introduce a novel class of Bayesian mixtures for normal linear regression models which incorporates a further Gaussian random component for the distribution of the predictor variables. The proposed cluster-weighted model aims to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-26 Panagiotis Papastamoulis , Konstantinos Perrakis

The mini-batch versions of StochAstic Recursive grAdient algoritHm and Semi-Stochastic Gradient Descent method, employed the random Barzilai-Borwein step sizes (shorted as MB-SARAH-RBB and mS2GD-RBB), have surged into prominence through…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2023-10-24 Jiangshan Wang , Yiming Yang , Zheng Peng

Flexible Bayesian models are typically constructed using limits of large parametric models with a multitude of parameters that are often uninterpretable. In this article, we offer a novel alternative by constructing an exponentially tilted…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-20 Abhisek Chakraborty , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

The paper considers two different designs; a two-arm superiority cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) with a continuous outcome, and a twoarm superiority cluster RCT with a binary outcome. From a Bayesian perspective, for the analysis…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-11 Abdullah Aloufi , Kevin Wilson , Nina Wilson , Lisa Shaw , Christopher Price

Chance-constrained motion planning requires uncertainty in dynamics to be propagated into uncertainty in state. When nonlinear models are used, Gaussian assumptions on the state distribution do not necessarily apply since almost all random…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2020-03-31 Allen Wang , Ashkan Jasour , Brian Williams

This study investigates the efficacy of Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs) for modeling high-dimensional financial time series and detecting systemic risk regimes. We extend the classical application of static Restricted…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2026-01-01 Siddhartha Srinivas Rentala

Health policy decisions are often informed by estimates of long-term survival based primarily on short-term data. A range of methods are available to include longer-term information, but there has previously been no comprehensive and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-05 Christopher Jackson

We consider the problem of multivariate density deconvolution where the distribution of a random vector needs to be estimated from replicates contaminated with conditionally heteroscedastic measurement errors. We propose a conceptually…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-29 Arkaprava Roy , Abhra Sarkar

Non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation encompasses a group of classic methods to estimate distribution-associated functions from potentially censored and truncated data, with extensive applications in survival analysis. These methods,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-05 Justin D. Tubbs , Lane Guolan Chen , Thuan Quoc Thach , Pak C. Sham