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A vital stage in the mathematical modelling of real-world systems is to calibrate a model's parameters to observed data. Likelihood-free parameter inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation, build Monte Carlo samples of the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-12-23 Thomas P Prescott , Ruth E Baker

Composite likelihood provides approximate inference when the full likelihood is intractable and sub-likelihood functions of marginal events can be evaluated relatively easily. It has been successfully applied for many complex models.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-05 Wentao Li , Rosabeth White , Dennis Prangle

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), also known as likelihood-free methods, have become a favourite tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models, primarily in population genetics but also in financial analyses. We advocated in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-03-18 Christian Robert , Jean-Michel Marin , Natesh S. Pillai

The Python package pyABC provides a framework for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), a likelihood-free parameter inference method popular in many research areas. At its core, it implements a sequential Monte-Carlo (SMC) scheme, with…

定量方法 · 定量生物学 2022-03-25 Yannik Schälte , Emmanuel Klinger , Emad Alamoudi , Jan Hasenauer

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions using simulation rather than likelihood calculations. We introduce Gaussian process (GP) accelerated ABC, which we show can significantly reduce…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-02-25 Richard D Wilkinson

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) performs statistical inference for otherwise intractable probability models by accepting parameter proposals when corresponding simulated datasets are sufficiently close to the observations. Producing…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-12-05 Dennis Prangle

Approximate Bayesian computing is a powerful likelihood-free method that has grown increasingly popular since early applications in population genetics. However, complications arise in the theoretical justification for Bayesian inference…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-12-03 Suzanne Thornton , Wentao Li , Min-ge Xie

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and other likelihood-free inference methods have gained popularity in the last decade, as they allow rigorous statistical inference for complex models without analytically tractable likelihood…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-06-21 Jukka Sirén , Samuel Kaski

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a likelihood-free inference method that has been employed in various applications. However, ABC can be sensitive to outliers if a data discrepancy measure is chosen inappropriately. In this paper,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-08 Masahiro Fujisawa , Takeshi Teshima , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

We discuss an approach for deriving robust posterior distributions from $M$-estimating functions using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods. In particular, we use $M$-estimating functions to construct suitable summary statistics…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-13 Erlis Ruli , Nicola Sartori , Laura Ventura

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a powerful and elegant framework for performing inference in simulation-based models. However, due to the difficulty in scaling likelihood estimates, ABC remains useful for relatively…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-03-09 Edward Meeds , Robert Leenders , Max Welling

1. Challenging calibration of complex models can be approached by using prior knowledge on the parameters. However, the natural choice of Bayesian inference can be computationally heavy when relying on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-04-27 Charlotte Baey , Henrik G. Smith , Maj Rundlöf , Ola Olsson , Yann Clough , Ullrika Sahlin

Bayesian inference with stochastic models is often difficult because their likelihood functions involve high-dimensional integrals. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) avoids evaluating the likelihood function and instead infers model…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a popular technique for approximating likelihoods and is often used in parameter estimation when the likelihood functions are analytically intractable. Although the use of ABC is widespread in many…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-03-29 Thomas A. Dean , Sumeetpal S. Singh , Ajay Jasra , Gareth W. Peters

Given the complexity of modern cosmological parameter inference where we are faced with non-Gaussian data and noise, correlated systematics and multi-probe correlated data sets, the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method is a…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2017-03-08 Elise Jennings , Maeve Madigan

This paper introduces a simple, general framework for likelihood-free Bayesian reinforcement learning, through Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). The main advantage is that we only require a prior distribution on a class of simulators…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-07-01 Christos Dimitrakakis , Nikolaos Tziortziotis

Many recent statistical applications involve inference under complex models, where it is computationally prohibitive to calculate likelihoods but possible to simulate data. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is devoted to these complex…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2011-06-15 Katalin Csilléry , Olivier François , Michael GB Blum

This chapter will appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). The conceptual and methodological framework that underpins approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is targetted primarily towards problems in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-03-20 Christopher C Drovandi , Clara Grazian , Kerrie Mengersen , Christian Robert

Inferring parameter distributions of complex industrial systems from noisy time series data requires methods to deal with the uncertainty of the underlying data and the used simulation model. Bayesian inference is well suited for these…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-06-18 David N. John , Livia Stohrer , Claudia Schillings , Michael Schick , Vincent Heuveline

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential part of the Bayesian toolbox for addressing problems in which the likelihood is prohibitively expensive or entirely unknown, making it intractable. ABC defines a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-14 Hien D. Nguyen , Julyan Arbel , Hongliang Lü , Florence Forbes