相关论文: A Note on the Prediction-Powered Bootstrap

We look into the task of \emph{generalizing} word embeddings: given a set of pre-trained word vectors over a finite vocabulary, the goal is to predict embedding vectors for out-of-vocabulary words, \emph{without} extra contextual…

We propose a novel adaptive approximation approach for test-time resource-constrained prediction. Given an input instance at test-time, a gating function identifies a prediction model for the input among a collection of models. Our…

To address the difficult problem of multi-step ahead prediction of non-parametric autoregressions, we consider a forward bootstrap approach. Employing a local constant estimator, we can analyze a general type of non-parametric time series…

We propose a coupled bootstrap (CB) method for the test error of an arbitrary algorithm that estimates the mean in a Poisson sequence, often called the Poisson means problem. The idea behind our method is to generate two carefully-designed…

Many applications require statistically valid inference across many related tasks, while using only a handful of high-quality labels per hypothesis. In AI evaluation, these tasks may correspond to model behaviors across prompts, subgroups,…

The estimation of parameter standard errors for semi-variogram models is challenging, given the two-step process required to fit a parametric model to spatially correlated data. Motivated by an application in the social-epidemiology, we…

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

We propose multiplier bootstrap procedures for nonparametric inference and uncertainty quantification of the target mean function, based on a novel framework of integrating target and source data. We begin with the relatively easier…

This study focuses on finite-sample inference on the non-linear Bures-Wasserstein manifold and introduces a generalized bootstrap procedure for estimating Bures-Wasserstein barycenters. We provide non-asymptotic statistical guarantees for…

We study the bootstrap for the maxima of the sums of independent random variables, a problem of high relevance to many applications in modern statistics. Since the consistency of bootstrap was justified by Gaussian approximation in…

A critical literature review and comprehensive simulation study is used to show that (a) non-parametric bootstrap is a viable alternative to commonly taught and used methods in basic estimation tasks (mean, variance, quartiles, correlation)…

Subsampling and block-based bootstrap methods have been used in a wide range of inference problems for time series. To accommodate the dependence, these resampling methods involve a bandwidth parameter, such as subsampling window width and…

Recent papers have introduced a novel approach to explain why a Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) model for outcome-oriented predictions provides wrong predictions. Moreover, they have shown how to exploit the explanations, obtained using…

Standard approaches to constructing nonparametric confidence bands for functions are frustrated by the impact of bias, which generally is not estimated consistently when using the bootstrap and conventionally smoothed function estimators.…

We present a new fitting technique based on the parametric bootstrap method, which relies on the idea to produce artificial measurements using the estimated probability distribution of the experimental data. In order to investigate the main…

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) map the inputs onto a set of interpretable concepts (``the bottleneck'') and use the concepts to make predictions. A concept bottleneck enhances interpretability since it can be investigated to understand…

This paper introduces the Fusemate probabilistic logic programming system. Fusemate's inference engine comprises a grounding component and a variable elimination method for probabilistic inference. Fusemate differs from most other systems…

The bootstrap is a popular data-driven method to quantify statistical uncertainty, but for modern high-dimensional problems, it could suffer from huge computational costs due to the need to repeatedly generate resamples and refit models. We…

The authors derive likelihood-based exact inference methods for the multivariate regression model, for singly imputed synthetic data generated via Posterior Predictive Sampling (PPS) and for multiply imputed synthetic data generated via a…

This study presents two new algorithms for solving linear stochastic bandit problems. The proposed methods use an approach from non-parametric statistics called bootstrapping to create confidence bounds. This is achieved without making any…