相关论文: A Note on the Prediction-Powered Bootstrap

We propose a lightly-supervised approach for information extraction, in particular named entity classification, which combines the benefits of traditional bootstrapping, i.e., use of limited annotations and interpretability of extraction…

We study an optimization-based approach to construct statistically accurate confidence intervals for simulation performance measures under nonparametric input uncertainty. This approach computes confidence bounds from simulation runs driven…

Predictable forward performance processes (PFPPs) are stochastic optimal control frameworks for an agent who controls a randomly evolving system but can only prescribe the system dynamics for a short period ahead. This is a common scenario…

To date, most probabilistic reasoning systems have relied on a fixed belief network constructed at design time. The network is used by an application program as a representation of (in)dependencies in the domain. Probabilistic inference…

Distribution forecast can quantify forecast uncertainty and provide various forecast scenarios with their corresponding estimated probabilities. Accurate distribution forecast is crucial for planning - for example when making production…

Accurate estimation of uncertainty in deep learning is critical for deploying models in high-stakes domains such as medical diagnosis and autonomous decision-making, where overconfident predictions can lead to harmful outcomes. In practice,…

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or…

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBM) are inherently interpretable models that factor model decisions into human-readable concepts. They allow people to easily understand why a model is failing, a critical feature for high-stakes applications.…

Learning a good representation is an essential component for deep reinforcement learning (RL). Representation learning is especially important in multitask and partially observable settings where building a representation of the unknown…

We study inference with a small labeled sample, a large unlabeled sample, and high-quality predictions from an external model. We link prediction-powered inference with empirical likelihood by stacking supervised estimating equations based…

Previous work has shown the unreliability of existing algorithms in the batch Reinforcement Learning setting, and proposed the theoretically-grounded Safe Policy Improvement with Baseline Bootstrapping (SPIBB) fix: reproduce the baseline…

A multiplier bootstrap procedure for construction of likelihood-based confidence sets is considered for finite samples and a possible model misspecification. Theoretical results justify the bootstrap validity for a small or moderate sample…

We present a powerful general framework for designing data-dependent optimization algorithms, building upon and unifying recent techniques in adaptive regularization, optimistic gradient predictions, and problem-dependent randomization. We…

While traditional machine learning can effectively tackle a wide range of problems, it primarily operates within a closed-world setting, which presents limitations when dealing with streaming data. As a solution, incremental learning…

Estimating nonlinear functionals of probability distributions from samples is a fundamental statistical problem. The "plug-in" estimator obtained by applying the target functional to the empirical distribution of samples is biased.…

Prompt-based methods have been used extensively across NLP to build zero- and few-shot label predictors. Many NLP tasks are naturally structured: that is, their outputs consist of multiple labels which constrain each other. Annotating data…

Model-based reinforcement learning attempts to use an available or learned model to improve the data efficiency of reinforcement learning. This work proposes a one-step lookback approach that jointly learns the deep incremental model and…

A regression method for proportional, or fractional, data with mixed effects is outlined, designed for analysis of datasets in which the outcomes have substantial weight at the bounds. In such cases a normal approximation is particularly…

This paper develops distribution theory and bootstrap-based inference methods for a broad class of convex pairwise difference estimators. These estimators minimize a kernel-weighted convex-in-parameter function over observation pairs with…

The problem of quantifying uncertainty about the locations of multiple change points by means of confidence intervals is addressed. The asymptotic distribution of the change point estimators obtained as the local maximisers of moving sum…